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#4505 - 10/03/00 04:43 AM 9pm, Mon, Official Reports
Marty Offline
photos from Belize City...
<img align=left width=246 height=193 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/loopmon9psm.gif"><img align=right width=170 height=190 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/geos17mon9p.jpg">
TROPICAL STORM KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2000

...KEITH DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...WARNINGS
CHANGED...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO THE MEXICO-
BELIZE BORDER...AND HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE TO PROGRESO. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING
BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MONKEY RIVER TOWN
BELIZE TO THE MEXICO-BELIZE BORDER.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=220 height=165 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/floodedstsm.jpg">
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...55 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE. THIS IS ALSO
VERY NEAR SAN PEDRO BELIZE.

KEITH IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WHILE LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...ANY CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
DRIFT COULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER NORTHERN BELIZE TONIGHT. A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=200 height=143 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bigonemon9psm.jpg">

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS KEITH MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=220 height=165 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/garagesm.jpg">
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 10 TO 15
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...18.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=208 height=176 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/llsm.gif">
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT...TUESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

993
WTNT45 KNHC 030234
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
<br clear=all><img align=right width=229 height=228 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/at200015_mon9p.jpg">

THE LAST RECON FLIGHT FOUND 75 KT WINDS AT 850 MB AT 2036Z...AND
DECREASING WINDS THEREAFTER. THE LAST REPORTED PRESSURE WAS 988 MB.
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. KEITH IS
DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS.

THE RECON FIXES INDICATED THAT KEITH WAS DRIFTING AT 330/2. IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS ANOTHER OF THE CYCLONE'S MEANDERS...OR IF
IT IS THE START OF THE LONG-AWAITED NORTHWEST TURN. IF IT IS THE
LATTER...IT LOOKS RATHER STRANGE GIVEN THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF WESTERN
CUBA. IN THEORY...THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP KEITH ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. DESPITE THE THEORY...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE STORM. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS EVEN CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST BEFORE 72 HR. GIVEN KEITH'S RELUCTANCE TO
MOVE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT GO AS FAST AS THE
GUIDANCE AND WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT WOULD
NOT BE THE LEAST SURPRISING IF KEITH DID NOT TURN NORTHWARD AT
ALL...A TRACK FAVORED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

WHILE KEITH IS SUFFERING FROM A COMBINATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND
LAND INTERACTION...IT SHOWS A GOOD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AND BANDED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ASSUMING IT FOLLOWS THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND. THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE AND PREDICTED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION...IF THE CENTER GETS
THERE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 INITIAL     03/0300Z 18.0N  88.1W    60 KTS
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.2N  88.2W    50 KTS...INLAND
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N  88.6W    40 KTS...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.4N  89.4W    30 KTS...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N  90.5W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N  93.0W    60 KTS
</font>

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#4506 - 10/03/00 06:46 AM Re: 9pm, Mon, Official Reports
Marty Offline
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