We really do have to start looking carefully now :
This close, can only give us a day or two warning.
This large ITCZ activity swelled up fast yesterday and some of its outpouring is coming right at us.
Could even be hiding some rain there, but I don't think so.
There is also the traces of a cool front coming down from Mexico, that just might trigger some rain.
But this ITCZ is almost exactly where Tropical Storm Alma formed in 2008, which then crossed over Honduras to the Caribbean and over Belize as TS Arthur.