Portofino Resort- Now with a new BEACH BAR!!
Topic Options
#464967 - 05/22/13 01:16 PM Development In W Caribbean 28th & June 5th?
Marty Offline
I wanted to post a quick update on the prospects of tropical development in the western Caribbean sometime between next week and the first week of June. Current surface analysis shows a tropical wave continuing to track westward and is located in the central Caribbean. This tropical wave is expected to reach the southwestern Caribbean sometime on Thursday and this tropical wave will help to increase rainfall across much of the western Caribbean starting around Friday and continuing right through this upcoming weekend and into next week. This tropical wave may also help to get some sort of tropical mischief going in the southwestern Caribbean possibly as early as next week.

Additionally the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is still expected to move into the Caribbean by this coming weekend and remain in the Atlantic through the first few days of June. It is fully expected that this area of upward moving air will lead to enhanced rainfall and lowering barometric pressures. This upward MJO pulse can also lead to tropical cyclone development and this is what may occur either next week or the following week in the western Caribbean.

A large area of high pressure is expected to develop across the southern United States and the Gulf of Mexico between May 28th and June 5th. This high pressure system would likely reduce wind shear and lead to a favorable environment for tropical cyclone development across the western and northwestern Caribbean. The development of a early season tropical cyclone is quite possible across the western and northwestern Caribbean between May 28th and June 7th.

The latest GFS model guidance continues to forecast tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean during the first week of June and for this system to track northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian model shows some sort of tropical development just south of Jamaica by next Friday. The European model guidance continues to point to lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean next week.

I want to continue to emphasize that the upcoming pattern of a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a weather pattern consisting of high pressure from the eastern and southern United States into the Gulf of Mexico produces a fairly high chance of tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean between May 28th and June 5th. Any tropical cyclone that does form has a good shot of tracking northward to either near the Bahamas or into the Gulf of Mexico.

I will continue to monitor the possibility of western Caribbean tropical development for possibly as early as next week and will continue to have frequent updates.



http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7360

Top
#464969 - 05/22/13 01:45 PM Re: Development In W Caribbean 28th & June 5th? [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
from Hugh in Belmopan....

There is certainly an increase in activity along the ITCZ area to the south of us.
I think there is rain along the central southern Caribbean, but not yet in our area.
There is no obvious indication of any rotation in the Caribbean, but conditions are starting to get more unstable, so I suppose it is possible.

Early season hurricanes do tend to start close to us.

Humidity early today was higher than it has been for many days, 78%, early clouds this morning looked a bit like rain clouds.

Top
#464970 - 05/22/13 01:46 PM Re: Development In W Caribbean 28th & June 5th? [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
from Beth in Cayo...

we did get half hr of solid hard rain approx 5 pm yesterday, then 10 additional mins of light rain. wind, thunder, no lightning.

they got in st elena and cristo rey too. friend up at the 6 mile, pine ridge road, said 2 drops fell there.

Top
#465204 - 05/25/13 04:37 PM Re: Development In W Caribbean 28th & June 5th? [Re: Marty]
SP Daily Offline
From Wonderblog:
Possible development in the western Caribbean on early June
The GFS as well as its ensembles are continuing to show a large area of low pressure developing over the northwestern Caribbean in few days after hurricane season starts in the Atlantic, which is June 1. The upward Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is currently in the eastern Pacific and should move into the western Atlantic soon and would remain in that area until early June. The upward MJO pulse will help enhance convection across much of the western Atlantic. In addition, shear is forecast to decrease gradually across the Caribbean by early June, allowing development to occur. The models are depicting this system to move northward and affect the western Caribbean islands and the southeastern United States, especially Florida. Although high uncertainty remains for tropical cyclone formation, development is still not out of the question yet.

Top
#465250 - 05/26/13 07:53 PM Re: Development In W Caribbean 28th & June 5th? [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
From Crown Weather today......


Pattern Turns Very Wet In The Caribbean Late This Week Into Next Week With Possible Tropical Development Between May 30th & June 5th
Sunday, May 26, 2013 9:38 am
by Rob Lightbown

It looks like things will turn quite wet and stormy across much of the Caribbean by later this week as the upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into our part of the world. As I have been mentioning for the last three weeks, it looks like this stormy weather could result in the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean between May 30th and June 5th with a possible track towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula.

The latest ensemble guidance, including the GFS and European ensemble guidance point to a marked increase in rainfall as well as lowering pressures in the western Caribbean during the last couple of days of May right into the first week of June. I can say with a good amount of confidence that I think we will see an area of low pressure develop in the southwestern Caribbean somewhere near the coast of Central America by late this week.

To further support the idea of the development of low pressure and subsequent possible tropical development in the western Caribbean is the forecast overall weather pattern across the United States this week into next week. A large area of high pressure is forecast to build over the eastern United States later this week and persist into next week. This sort of setup with low pressure over the western Caribbean and an area of high pressure over the eastern United States will cause a large area of heavy rainfall to develop across central America, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Puerto Rico by later this week. This heavy rainfall is then forecast to spread across south Florida and the Bahamas by the weekend and into next week. This sort of pattern also is favorable for the development of a tropical storm that could form in the western Caribbean between May 30th and June 5th and then track northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula.

So, it does appear at the very least that heavy rainfall with flooding is likely across central America, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Puerto Rico by late this week and then across south Florida and the Bahamas during the weekend into next week. Development of a tropical storm is still very much on the table by late this week or next week in the western Caribbean and this will be something that I will be monitoring very closely. Keep checking back for further updates as I will continue to have frequent updates throughout the week

Top

Links
Click for excellent scuba lessons with Elbert Greer!


Things to do

News
Daily News
Daily Weather

Classified Ads
BelizeNews.com
San Pedro Sun
Ambergris Today
SP Town Council
Channel 7
Channel 5
Amandala
Love FM
The Reporter
Caye Caulker
Chronicles

PLUS TV
TV Newscasts
Radio Stations

Click for our
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites

Event Guides
Event Calendar
Specials & Events
Things to Do
SanPedroScoop
iTravel Belize
Paradise Theater

Blogs
San Pedro Scoop!
Tia Chocolate
Tacogirl
My Beautiful Belize
I-Travel Belize
Belize Adventure
Belize Hub
Romantic Travel
Bound for Belize
Conch Creative
As The Coconuts Drop
More Blogs...
Search thousands of Belizean-only websites
Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We manage a variety of homes, apartments, condos and commercial properties here on Ambergris Caye. Our minimum lease on ALL properties is six months.
Conch Shell Inn: All rooms are right on the beach in the heart of San Pedro, so within walking distance to anything and everything!!
Lilí Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
Mini Chat

Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
December
S M T W T F S
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Who's Online
0 registered (), 38 Guests and 5 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Stats
18,676 Registered Members
44 Forums
64,079 Topics
462,376 Posts

Most users ever online: 1,262 @ 06/10/07 07:16 PM




AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com SanPedroDaily.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.