While this upcoming week is expected to be quiet across much of the tropics. I am eyeing the very end of July into the first half of August for that tropical development switch to be flipped on almost overnight. In many past years, I have literally gone to bed one evening with nothing on the maps only to wake up the following morning with 2 or 3 areas that want to develop seemingly out of nowhere. This is what I kind of expect this year as we get into late July and early August for things to really ramp up virtually overnight.
The super long range Climate Forecast System (CFS) model’s 45 day forecast is showing a long tracked Cape Verde storm that tracks from the central Atlantic around August 3rd to the northern Leeward & Virgin Islands by August 6-7 to the Florida Peninsula around August 11th. Please take the model guidance of the CFS model with a huge ton of salt. More than likely, the exact details will be wrong, however, the overall pattern of a increase in tropical development activity and an upper level pattern that would steers storms towards land is what we should take away from this.
CFS Model Forecast For August 6:
CFS Model Forecast For August 10:
CFS Model Forecast For August 11:
CFS Model Forecast For August 13:
I continue to be extremely concerned and worried about the overall weather pattern that we are in that seems to want to direct any systems (tropical waves, upper level lows, Chantal) westward towards the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States. The very long range guidance strongly suggests that this pattern will not break leading to a potentially dangerous weather pattern as we head into August which could steer any tropical storms or hurricanes right into the Antilles, Gulf Coast, Florida and the US Southeast coast.