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It is part of the problem by causing unstable weather.

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Marty Offline OP
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lotsa models, its not a done deal

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News on this?


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looks like we getting it now, WAT A LOT OF RAIN !!!!!!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by Katie Valk
News on this?


Rob Lightbown of Crown weather usually posts cautionary predictions -- he backed off on danger for us yesterday and did not post at all today.
Would love to know what he is thinking and what the models are saying ....

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Marty Offline OP
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Update On Possible Central/Western Caribbean Development In About One Week From Now

I'm still keeping tabs on a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone in either the central/western Caribbean in about a week or so from now.

The most recent forecasts from the various models seem to agree in that this disturbance gradually gets its act together once in the western half of the Caribbean in early November. The Canadian model guidance is the strongest of the guidance and shows a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean by November 5th. The GFS ensemble guidance (which is an average of all of the possible scenarios based on different factors) is different than the operational GFS model guidance. The GFS ensemble shows a tropical cyclone in the Yucatan Channel by November 8th while the operational GFS model guidance shows little. Finally, the NAVGEM model guidance has come on board and is forecasting a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean around November 3rd.

Satellite imagery does show that the disturbance in the central Atlantic is somewhat less organized than it was yesterday and environmental conditions over the Caribbean are not favorable for development right now. So, it is something that definitely requires vigilance and monitoring, however, it is not something that is threatening at this time.

Canadian Model Forecast For November 5th:


GFS Ensemble Model Guidance For November 8th:


NAVGEM Model Guidance For November 3rd:


Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com


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Well, there ya go !

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Make me crazy, I need the stress.


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Marty Offline OP
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Various forecast guidance continues to point to gradual tropical development somewhere in the Caribbean during the first and second week of November. It looks like to me that based on analysis of current conditions that this possible development may come from a tropical disturbance now located over the eastern Atlantic near about 30 to 35 West Longitude. Before I get into the various forecast guidance details, I want to point out that environmental conditions are forecast to begin becoming more favorable for development across the eastern Caribbean around Friday with the central and eastern Caribbean possibly being favorable for tropical development by this coming weekend.

The GFS model guidance shows a broad low pressure system forming over the central Caribbean by early next week that never really spins up into a tropical cyclone. The GFS ensemble guidance is different than its operational guidance counterpart in that it forecasts a broad low pressure system forming near Jamaica around November 7th which spins up into a tropical cyclone near the Cayman Islands on November 12th that starts to track towards the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba by November 13th.

The Canadian model guidance is considered suspect this morning and I'm not using it in my forecast for potential tropical development. It forecasts two tropical cyclones to form. The first one is forecast to develop right over the Virgin Islands on Friday that takes off to the northeast into the open Atlantic. The Canadian model guidance then forecasts a second tropical cyclone developing just south of Jamaica on November 5th that tracks right over the Cayman Islands by November 6th and towards the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba by November 7th.

The NAVGEM model guidance clearly hones in on the tropical disturbance now near 30-35 West Longitude as a definite candidate for tropical development. It forecasts this tropical disturbance to track near Barbados and the Windward Islands on Friday bringing squally weather to these islands. The NAVGEM model guidance then forecasts this tropical disturbance to develop into a broad low pressure system that looks to start to spin up into a tropical cyclone just south of Jamaica by about November 5th.

The European model guidance forecasts that low pressure will form just south of Jamaica around November 3rd that appears to originate from that tropical disturbance near 30-35 West Longitude. The European model guidance forecasts that this low pressure system will remain over the southwestern Caribbean through at least November 7th, but the European model never really shows it spinning up into a tropical cyclone.

The FIM model guidance, which has been very consistent in forecasting development, shows a broad low pressure system forming over the central or eastern Caribbean this coming weekend that eventually spins up into a tropical cyclone near the Mona Passage between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico around November 6th that gradually tracks towards and into the southeastern Bahamas by about November 9th and for it to stall over the southeastern Bahamas as a hurricane through at least November 11th.

So, here are my thoughts: During late October and the first half of November, the western Caribbean is normally the spot to look at for potential tropical cyclone development. Additionally, anything that does develop in the western Caribbean normally tracks northeastward across Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands.

I do think there is a pretty good chance that we will see a tropical cyclone develop somewhere over the Caribbean either next week or at the very latest the following week. The reason why I think that we will see tropical development is that the Madden Julian Oscillation is in a favorable upward motion phase. I do think that the tropical disturbance now near 30-35 West Longitude will be the system to watch closely as it heads into the Caribbean between Friday and Sunday with the most likely time for development between November 5th and November 12th. I do think that pretty much the entire Caribbean will be in play in regards to this potential development as guidance points to favorable environmental conditions spreading westward across the Caribbean this weekend into next week.

So, at this point I would frankly be surprised if nothing develops in the Caribbean during the first two weeks of November based on the forecast favorable environmental conditions and the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation. So, this is something that I will be monitoring closely, especially once we get into next week and the following week. Until then, tropical development is highly unlikely from today through at least Sunday across the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com


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Marty Offline OP
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Tropical Development Still Possible In The Central & Western Caribbean Sometime Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:04 am

Satellite imagery and analysis of surface and upper air data shows that conditions are unfavorable across the Gulf Of Mexico, Atlantic and Caribbean. An approaching cold front is expected to produce seas of 6 to 8 feet and south to southeast winds gusting to 35 mph across the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon into tonight. Also, a trough of low pressure will track across the eastern Caribbean and will produce winds of up to 30 mph today across the northeastern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are very unfavorable across the Caribbean and development is highly unlikely due to wind shear values of 30 to 50 knots across the entire Caribbean. It is "interesting" to note that the model forecast for environmental conditions may be erroneous as it is forecasting favorable conditions across the central and western Caribbean this morning and it is obvious to me that environmental conditions are highly unfavorable and goes against this model forecast.

Some of the forecast guidance members have backed off on Caribbean tropical development during the first two weeks of November while other forecast guidance members continue to insist that tropical development will happen next week. The GFS and GFS ensemble guidance no longer shows development in the Caribbean.

The Canadian model guidance forecasts that tropical cyclone development will be generated from an area of disturbed weather associated with a mid and upper level low pressure system currently located over northern Colombia in northern South America. The Canadian model guidance shows this system to strengthen into a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the western Caribbean just east of Honduras and Nicaragua by Monday night and Tuesday and for this system to turn back to the north-northeast and impact the Cayman Islands as a minimal hurricane around November 8th and then the Florida Keys and southwest Florida as a hurricane on November 9th.

The UKMET model guidance, even though it doesn't forecast tropical development, shows a upper air pattern that looks favorable for tropical development on Monday and Tuesday as it shows a strong surface high pressure system over New England and a upper level high pressure system over northern Florida. This combination will lead to lowering barometric pressures from the southeastern Bahamas through the central and western Caribbean. So, this setup will need to be monitored as we get into next week.

The European model guidance is similar to the Canadian model in that it forecasts a broad low pressure system to originate from an area of disturbed weather over northern South America. This low pressure system is forecast to track to a position just south of Jamaica by Thursday of next week and then into the northwestern Caribbean by next Saturday (November 9th).

The FIM model guidance, which had been very consistent, in forecasting tropical development now does not show any sort of tropical development in the Caribbean during the first two weeks of November.

Here are my thoughts as of this morning:
Even though environmental conditions are currently very unfavorable for any sort of tropical development. Conditions are forecast to become favorable for development this weekend into early next week first across the eastern Caribbean and then spreading westward across the central and western Caribbean by the middle part of next week. That area of disturbed weather over northern South America, which is associated with a trough of low pressure should lift northward into the central Caribbean this weekend and this disturbance could be the trigger that leads to possible tropical development next week over the central and western Caribbean. One item that leads me to not discount the Canadian model guidance, which shows a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean next week is the fact that a high pressure system over New England from Monday through Wednesday may lead to lowering barometric pressures over the Caribbean. These lowering pressures combined with the trigger of a trough of low pressure could lead to tropical development over the western Caribbean next week.


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