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#475528 - 10/23/13 02:17 PM Possible Tropical Development Next Week
Marty Online   happy

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 10:14 am

A frontal boundary is pushing into the central and southern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to enter the northern Caribbean by Friday where it is expected to stall out over the weekend. Additionally, an area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche this morning. Environmental conditions arenít exactly favorable for development and I donít think weíll see much if any development from it. With that said, this area of disturbed weather will be monitored.

Now, that frontal system which is expected to stall over the northern Caribbean will need to be watched for possible tropical development next week. Some of the forecast guidance, including the GFS model, is now consistently forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone between October 28th and November 4th. There are large differences in the details of the exact location and strength of this forecast tropical cyclone depending on which forecast model you look at.

Now, the setup starting next week seems to suggest we have a fairly decent chance of seeing a tropical cyclone form in the Caribbean as there will be a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity with a significant trough of low pressure developing over the central and eastern United States by about October 31st. This will lead to rising air and thunderstorm development over the Caribbean next week into possibly the following week and this development could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone.

So, the forecast guidance is showing the start of this development to occur in about seven days from now (around October 30th) with the GFS model showing the development occurring south of Jamaica and a track into the northwestern Caribbean by early November. The Canadian model guidance has a completely different forecast in that it forecasts a tropical cyclone to develop near Bermuda around October 29th and a track northeastward from there. Now, it seems the European model guidance also forecasts a low pressure system near Bermuda on October 29th and a track northeastward into the open Atlantic. Finally, the FIM model guidance shows the development of a tropical cyclone over the central Caribbean around Monday with a track just south of Jamaica on Tuesday and a landfall in Central America next Wednesday.

I continue to think tropical cyclone development is quite possible somewhere in the Caribbean, most likely west of 70 West Longitude between October 28th and November 2nd. I agree with the ensemble guidance which is pointing to about a 30 to 40 percent chance for tropical development over the central and western Caribbean between October 28th and November 2nd. Anything that develops in the Caribbean will likely remain in the Caribbean and I see very little if any chance that this is pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico.






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#475642 - 10/25/13 10:18 AM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
Marty Online   happy

Forecast guidance are pointing to the western and southwestern Caribbean as being an area of significant concern beginning around October 30th and continuing up until about November 10th.

The GFS model guidance continues to be off and on regarding potential development starting in about 8 to 10 days from now in the western Caribbean. The European model guidance forecasts that a very broad area of low pressure will form over the central and western Caribbean around November 2nd and 3rd. The Canadian model guidance, as I already mentioned, shows a tropical cyclone in the western and southwestern Caribbean late next week into next weekend which makes landfall in Honduras on November 3rd. Finally, the FIM model guidance forecasts tropical cyclone development in the central Caribbean around November 3rd that develops into a full blown hurricane in the western Caribbean by November 5th. The FIM model guidance then forecasts this system to impact the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize as a hurricane on November 6th.

The latest ensemble guidance is forecasting that there is a 70 to 80 percent chance for a tropical cyclone to form in the southwestern Caribbean in 5 to 10 days from now (Between October 30th and November 3rd). My thoughts as of this morning are that the entire weather pattern next week into the following week is one that you usually see a tropical cyclone pop out of. The combination of this favorable pattern, low barometric pressures over the Caribbean and warm ocean water temperatures seems to suggest that I think there is a fairly good chance for tropical development in the central or western Caribbean and I would be very surprised if a tropical cyclone did not develop in the Caribbean between October 30th and November 10th. Anything that develops in the Caribbean will likely remain in the Caribbean and I see very little if any chance that this is pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Crown Weather this morning


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#475649 - 10/25/13 10:47 AM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
Damn.

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#475661 - 10/25/13 11:59 AM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
Katie Valk Offline
Damn
_________________________
Belize based travel specialist
www.belize-trips.com
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#475668 - 10/25/13 01:34 PM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
Double Damn
_________________________
The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/

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#475669 - 10/25/13 01:47 PM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
debbief Offline
We're arriving Saturday for two weeks. I've been watching the weather report and trying not to worry, but when Diane, Katie, and Elbert starting "damning" I think we might be in for some serious weather! :-(

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#475671 - 10/25/13 02:10 PM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
Amanda Syme Offline
The word is not damn - it is sandbags! Let's keep an eye on this and be prepared folks.

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#475676 - 10/25/13 02:59 PM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
Katie Valk Offline
We do not have special insight into the H word and Amanda is right, monitor and be prepared.
_________________________
Belize based travel specialist
www.belize-trips.com
info@belize-trips.com

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#475679 - 10/25/13 03:27 PM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
Diane Campbell Offline
just when I pretty much used up my canned goods --- shesh

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#475685 - 10/25/13 04:38 PM Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week [Re: Marty]
ScubaLdy Offline
How is this cold front affect the development of a possible hurricane?
_________________________
Harriette
Take only pictures leave only bubbles

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