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#4812 - 10/03/00 01:36 PM 6am Tues, Official Reports
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<img align=left width=130 height=110 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/looptues6asm.gif"><img align=right width=223 height=184 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/striketues6a.gif"> TROPICAL STORM KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2000


...KEITH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

SOME OR ALL OF THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

<br clear=all><img align=right width=180 height=191 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/goes19sm.jpg">
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST
OR INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

KEITH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
AND A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
KEITH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=220 height=150 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bwtues6a2.jpg">
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RECENT HAM
RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN 22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
TO THE WEST OF BELIZE CITY SINCE SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED
10 TO 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 88.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion
<br clear=all><img align=right width=250 height=176 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bigonetues6a.jpg">
TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000

THE CENTER OF KEITH HAS FINALLY MOVED INLAND. THE LAST RECON REPORT
HAD THE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ON RADAR AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 990 MB. TERRAIN HAZARDS KEPT THE CREW FROM LOCATING THE
STRONGEST WINDS...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RECON WIND DATA
SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05. NOW THAT KEITH IS INLAND...
RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE
TRACK OF KEITH. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL MODELS
THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN TAKE KEITH MORE NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
SIMILAR TO THE UKMET MODEL. THE UKMET SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE FAST
WITH THE FORWARD MOTION...WHILE THE AVN MODEL LOSES KEITH AFTER
ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE KEITH EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...RE-INTENSIFICATION AND A DEEPER CIRCULATION SHOULD DEVELOP.
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AFTER 48 HOURS FAVORS A MORE NORTHWARD THAN
WESTWARD MOTION...AND THAT TREND WAS FOLLOWED AS PER THE NOGAPS AND
UKMET MODELS.

KEITH HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR THE PAST 36
HOURS. THAT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL KEITH
EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THAT TIME...ALL THE GLOBAL
AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF KEITH SHOULD BE UNDER THE MEAN 200 MB RIDGE
AXIS AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH BOTH A POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN PRESENT...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SUCH A PATTERN OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...BUT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WAS HELD DOWN DUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
WESTERN GULF NOT MOVING OUT IN TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 INITIAL     03/0900Z 18.3N  88.7W    50 KTS...INLAND
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.1N  89.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.1N  90.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N  90.9W    35 KTS
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.0N  91.5W    50 KTS
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N  92.5W    65 KTS

Hurricane KEITH
 ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1  16.10  -82.90 09/28/21Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   2  16.20  -83.20 09/29/03Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   3  16.20  -83.20 09/29/09Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   4  17.20  -84.30 09/29/15Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   5  17.60  -85.20 09/29/21Z   45   995 TROPICAL STORM
  5A  17.70  -85.30 09/30/00Z   45   995 TROPICAL STORM
   6  17.90  -85.30 09/30/03Z   45   995 TROPICAL STORM
  6A  17.80  -85.50 09/30/06Z   55   995 TROPICAL STORM
   7  18.10  -86.30 09/30/09Z   60   985 TROPICAL STORM
  7A  18.20  -86.40 09/30/12Z   60   985 TROPICAL STORM
   8  18.00  -86.60 09/30/15Z   70   984 HURRICANE-1
  8A  18.00  -86.60 09/30/18Z   70   982 HURRICANE-1
   9  18.00  -86.80 09/30/21Z   85   970 HURRICANE-2
  9A  18.00  -87.00 10/01/00Z   90   966 HURRICANE-2
  10  18.10  -87.10 10/01/03Z  100   960 HURRICANE-3
 10A  18.10  -87.40 10/01/06Z  105   955 HURRICANE-3
  11  18.00  -87.30 10/01/09Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
 11A  18.20  -87.50 10/01/12Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
  12  18.10  -87.60 10/01/15Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
 12A  17.90  -87.70 10/01/18Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
  13  17.90  -87.90 10/01/21Z  110   951 HURRICANE-3
 13A  17.80  -87.80 10/02/00Z   95   958 HURRICANE-2
  14  17.90  -87.90 10/02/03Z  100   958 HURRICANE-3
 14A  17.90  -87.90 10/02/04Z  100   958 HURRICANE-3
 14B  17.80  -87.90 10/02/06Z  100   958 HURRICANE-3
  15  17.60  -87.80 10/02/09Z   85   975 HURRICANE-2
 15A  17.70  -87.80 10/02/12Z   80   979 HURRICANE-1
  16  17.70  -87.80 10/02/15Z   70   979 HURRICANE-1
 16A  17.70  -87.90 10/02/18Z   65   979 HURRICANE-1
  17  17.70  -88.00 10/02/21Z   65   987 HURRICANE-1
 17A  17.90  -88.00 10/03/00Z   65   988 HURRICANE-1
  18  18.00  -88.10 10/03/03Z   60   988 TROPICAL STORM
 18A  18.10  -88.10 10/03/06Z   55   989 TROPICAL STORM
  19  18.30  -88.70 10/03/09Z   45   993 TROPICAL STORM
 +12  19.10  -89.50 10/03/18Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
 +24  20.10  -90.20 10/04/06Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 +36  21.30  -90.90 10/04/18Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
 +48  23.00  -91.50 10/05/06Z   50     - TROPICAL STORM
 +72  27.00  -92.50 10/06/06Z   65     - HURRICANE-1

  
</font>




[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-03-2000).]

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#4813 - 10/03/00 02:11 PM Re: 6am Tues, Official Reports
Marty Online   happy
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