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#497110 - 10/21/14 11:51 PM TD 9, then Invest 94L then Hanna, now Invest 96L
Marty Offline
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, October 21, 2014 5:03 pm

A reconnaissance aircraft is investigating Invest 93L which is located in the southern Bay of Campeche. They did find that there is a small well-defined low pressure system associated with Invest 93L. In addition, reconnaissance aircraft also found winds near tropical storm force associated with the low pressure system. The National Hurricane Center opted not to upgrade it to a tropical cyclone as the thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 93L is not organized enough to be considered a tropical cyclone at this time.

Environmental conditions may become favorable enough for Invest 93L to organize and strengthen into a tropical depression or a tropical storm between later tonight and on Wednesday. Based on the latest model guidance, it looks fairly likely now that Invest 93L will track east-southeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday before it emerges in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday. After Friday, the model guidance continues to have fairly different ideas on where this system may track and how strong it could get.

The GFS model guidance forecasts a fairly weak tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean by this weekend into early next week that eventually tracks back to the west towards the Yucatan Peninsula around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

The NAVGEM model guidance forecasts a track into the northwestern Caribbean where it strengthens into a strong tropical cyclone this weekend with the NAVGEM model forecasting a northward turn towards Florida during the early part of next week.


The European model guidance forecasts a meandering tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean from this weekend into early next week that is ultimately pulled northeastward across south Florida by about Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

The tropical cyclone model guidance consensus is for a track into the northwestern Caribbean with an eventual turn to the north towards the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

My late afternoon thoughts: It seems that the outcome of a system getting stuck in the northwestern Caribbean is one that is becoming more and more likely. So, I suspect that Invest 93L will continue tracking eastward and even east-southeastward and it would not surprise me to see it upgraded to a tropical depression or a tropical storm either later tonight or on Wednesday. All it is lacking right now is the deep thunderstorm activity for it to be considered a tropical cyclone and I think we will see this happen late tonight into Wednesday.

This eastward track will bring Invest 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday and everyone across the Yucatan Peninsula and across Belize should be aware that heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely from later Wednesday through Thursday.

Once Invest 93L gets into the northwestern Caribbean by Friday, I think that it will probably meander around in the northwestern Caribbean for several days from this weekend into at least early next week. At this point, there is a high degree of uncertainty on where Invest 93L may go and how strong it could get. There is the possibility that it will be ultimately picked up by a trough of low pressure and yanked northward out of the Caribbean and towards the Florida Peninsula by the middle part of next week. Now, there is just as equal of a chance that it will meander westward and be missed by the trough with a ultimate track back towards the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle to later parts of next week. As for potential strength in the northwestern Caribbean, I’m currently leaning towards the side of some strengthening to probably a tropical storm. At this point, I don’t see enough evidence to think that it will be a hurricane like what the NAVGEM model is suggesting. Cool, dry air will be just to the north of this system across much of the Gulf of Mexico and this should put a damper on robust strengthening.

Everyone across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the northwestern Caribbean, south Florida and the Florida Keys should continue to monitor the progress of Invest 93L. I continue to monitor Invest 93L closely and will continue to have updates as conditions warrant.


Jeff Masters

3:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2014

The storm is likely to move slowly eastwards across the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday and Wednesday, cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, move through the Florida Straits between Cuba and South Florida on Friday, then into the Bahamas on Saturday. Along its path, 3 - 6" of rain are are likely--with higher rainfall amounts to be expected if 93L ends up developing into a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 50%, respectively. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 93L Tuesday afternoon.

The prospects of 93L developing into a damaging hurricane are very low, and this storm is primarily a heavy rain threat. However, both the GFS and European models show the possibility that the trough of low pressure expected to pick up 93L and pull it northeastwards out to sea this weekend may leave behind an area of spin in the Western Caribbean early next week that would potentially have the capability to develop into a more dangerous tropical cyclone than 93L. It's too early to be sold on this model solution yet, but we should pay attention to the evolution of this storm system over the coming week.

Invest 93L Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery Link


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#497116 - 10/22/14 09:40 AM Re: Tropical Depression Nine [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Tropical Depression could bring lots of rain over Belize

A large portion of Belize could be affected by rain from a tropical system that is tracking eastward towards the Yucatan Peninsula.

The Miami-based National Hurricane Center tonight announced the formation of Tropical Depression number 9 over the Bay of Campeche.

At 9 o’clock Belize time tonight, TD-9 was about 160 miles west-southwest of Campeche carrying maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour.


Wind probabilities

TD-9 is moving towards the east at 6 miles per hour. On the forecast track, TD-9 is expected to approach the coast of Campeche on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Forecasters expect that TD-9 will strengthen to a Tropical Storm in the next 24 hours at which time it will be named Hanna.

TD-9 is forecast to produce copious amounts of rainfall with accumulations expected to be between 5 and 10 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula in the coming days.

Forecast models show the “cone of uncertainty” including roughly half of the country of Belize through Thursday when the system will emerge into the Caribbean Sea on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as it continues on an easterly track into the central Caribbean Sea.

Patrick Jones


Tropical Depression Nine

After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently cloud tops have warmed. Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized. The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this morning to check its intensity.

The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening of the system over the warm waters of the Eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. After weakening due to its passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent reintensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Since the system is quite small, it might be disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC forecast.

The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt. A generally westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the forecast period. The official track forecast is nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north of the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that due to the possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more uncertain by days 4 and 5.

Forecast positions and Max winds
Init  22/0900z 19.4n  92.3w   30 kt  35 mph
 12h  22/1800z 19.4n  91.6w   40 kt  45 mph
 24h  23/0600z 19.3n  90.6w   45 kt  50 mph...inland
 36h  23/1800z 19.1n  89.6w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 48h  24/0600z 18.9n  88.5w   30 kt  35 mph...inland
 72h  25/0600z 18.5n  86.5w   30 kt  35 mph...over water
 96h  26/0600z 18.5n  84.5w   30 kt  35 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h  27/0600z 18.5n  82.5w   30 kt  35 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

Click for the full Tropical Weather Report


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#497126 - 10/22/14 12:07 PM Re: Tropical Depression Nine [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Tropical Depression #9 Forms In The Southeastern Bay Of Campeche & Will Be Is Heading For The Northwestern Caribbean Where It Will Need To Be Watched Extremely Closely


Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 8:34 am

Tropical Depression #9:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location:
19.4 North Latitude, 92.4 West Longitude or about 120 miles to the west-southwest of Campeche, Mexico.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Forward Movement: Stationary.

Deep convection fired for several hours last night and this was enough based on earlier reconnaissance reports to upgrade Invest 93L located in the southeastern part of the Bay of Campeche to Tropical Depression #9.

This deep thunderstorm activity has since died down some and radar imagery from the Bay of Campeche reveals that the depression has become less organized. It is expected that TD 9 will continue pushing eastward today and tonight towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable and it is anticipated that this system will be able to strengthen to Tropical Storm Hanna before it moves inland into the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

An east-southeastward track across the Yucatan Peninsula looks likely during Thursday into Friday before it emerges into the northwestern Caribbean late Friday night or Saturday. Beyond Saturday, the uncertainty in the forecast track and intensity of TD 9/Hanna increases dramatically as unlike the National Hurricane Center, I think that it is likely that this system will have a second life in the northwestern Caribbean. The GFS model guidance is very aggressive with this northwestern Caribbean second life and it seems the European model **may** be very slowly trending towards the GFS model. Let’s take a look at what each of the models have to say:

GFS Model: As I already mentioned, the GFS model is very aggressive with significantly strengthening this system over the northwestern Caribbean between Sunday and Tuesday as it tracks slowly northward from the northwestern Caribbean on Sunday to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. The GFS model forecasts that this system will impact the Florida Peninsula as probably a hurricane around Wednesday.

European Model: The European model seems to be strongly hinting now that this system will “regenerate” in the northwestern Caribbean just southwest of Jamaica by about Sunday and that this system will track back very slowly towards the west-northwest across the northwestern Caribbean next week ultimately reaching the Yucatan Channel around next Thursday.

Canadian Model: The Canadian model ends up dropping this system southward across Mexico and ends up forecasting it to be a eastern Pacific tropical cyclone.

NAVGEM Model: The NAVGEM model, much like the GFS model, forecasts significant strengthening of this system during Sunday and Monday as it tracks first eastward and then northward over the northwestern Caribbean. By Monday, the NAVGEM model forecasts that this system will be a hurricane positioned halfway between the north coast of Cuba and the Florida Keys tracking northward towards the Florida Peninsula.

Here are my thoughts: I do think that it is likely that we will see TD 9 meander around the northwestern Caribbean starting this weekend and it is of my opinion that this will have a second life in the northwestern Caribbean. The large uncertainties in the forecast are going to be how long will it sit in the northwestern Caribbean and wait for a trough of low pressure to pull it out of the Caribbean and also how strong will it become. The reason why the GFS and NAVGEM models are pulling this system out of the Caribbean so quickly is because of how strong these models predict this system will become. A stronger system will “feel” approaching troughs of low pressure more and will lift northward towards these troughs. A weaker storm, like the European model, is forecasting will be missed by these troughs and left behind.

At this point, I’m leaning towards a solution that is somewhere between the European and GFS models for both strength and track. So, by this weekend, I think that we will have a tropical system which is TD 9 sitting in the northwestern Caribbean somewhere near the Cayman Islands and just west of Jamaica slowly organizing and strengthening. Now, dry air is expected to be a problem, however, the vertical wind shear is forecast to be fairly low and tropical cyclones can sometimes strengthen significantly in a otherwise dry air environment if the vertical wind shear is low.

Next week, I think a slow northwestward track from near the Cayman Islands on Monday to near western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by about Wednesday seems reasonable right now. In addition, the slow strengthening to probably a moderately strong tropical storm seems plausible as well.

I want to caution you and say that I am by no means throwing out the GFS model and its rapid strengthening forecast. It is a distinct possibility and is something that needs to be watched for extremely closely, especially should the forecast of a low wind shear environment verifies.

In summary, the forecast for TD 9 while it is in the northwestern Caribbean still has a high degree of uncertainty between this weekend and next week. Even though, I am keeping very close tabs on the possibility of a rapid strengthener in the northwestern Caribbean, there isn’t enough evidence for me to forecast this at this time. Instead, I think that we will see a tropical storm gradually strengthening next week as it tracks slowly northwestward from near the Cayman Islands on Monday to near western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Wednesday.

Finally, for those of you in the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, there is a more immediate threat for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding from this system. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with local amounts of 15 inches are likely across the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize from today through at least Friday or Saturday. This heavy rainfall will produce the threat for flash flooding across the Yucatan Peninsula and across Belize over the next several days.

I am monitoring TD 9 extremely closely and will continue to have updates as conditions warrant.

Model Track Forecast For TD #9:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast For TD #9:
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Satellite Imagery Of TD #9:


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#497167 - 10/23/14 10:25 AM Re: Tropical Depression Nine [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Well TD #9 never got a name and as soon as it hit the Yucatan tonight it died. Now just a remnant low over land. Will have to see if any remnants will emerge and try to develop in the NW Caribbean next week but it's not looking likely.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The system has not produced a significant area of organized deep convection since late this morning and it is therefore being declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration. The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and the multi-model consensus.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and South Florida are not directly related to this system.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

Forecast positions and Max winds
Init  23/0300z 18.9n  90.9w   25 kt  30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
 12h  23/1200z 18.8n  90.3w   20 kt  25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
 24h  24/0000z 18.5n  89.5w   20 kt  25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
 36h  24/1200z 18.2n  88.9w   20 kt  25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
 48h  25/0000z 17.8n  88.2w   20 kt  25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
 72h  26/0000z 17.3n  87.5w   20 kt  25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
 96h  27/0000z...dissipated
 


Tropical Depression 9 Dissipates

Accuweather

Tropical Depression 9 has dissipated into a tropical rainstorm over the western Yucatan Peninsula.

Nine made landfall early Wednesday evening as a disorganized system that lacked significant thunderstorm activity. The system continued to weaken once it moved ashore, and is now anticipated to slowly drift across the Yucatan Peninsula through Friday as a tropical rainstorm.

Despite this weakening, the system will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula which could result in localized flooding.

The rainstorm is expected to enter into the Caribbean by the weekend, though at this point it appears as though there is little chance for the system to regenerate into a significant tropical cyclone.

Another area of low pressure near the Azores continues to weaken and is no longer expected to develop into a tropical feature.


Tropical Depression #9 Weakens Into A Low Pressure System Over The Yucatan Peninsula But Will Still Move Into The Northwestern Caribbean By This Weekend

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Thursday, October 23, 2014 9:19 am

Satellite imagery and radar data from the Yucatan Peninsula indicates that whatever is left of Tropical Depression #9 is now inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, it appears likely that it will continue tracking eastward across the Yucatan Peninsula from today into Friday before emerging into the northwestern Caribbean by later Friday or Saturday. The overall model guidance have all but dropped the idea of regeneration and strengthening of this system when it gets into the northwestern Caribbean. The reason seems to be the forecast of dry air sinking into the northwestern Caribbean and some westerly wind shear will prevent regeneration.

What is “interesting” is that the models that are normally very aggressive with tropical cyclone formation like the Canadian and GFS models show little or no development from the remains of TD 9 and basically show it to remain a very weak low pressure system that never develops and also forecasts it to remain nearly stationary in the northwestern Caribbean for at least the next week.

Meanwhile, the models, such as the European model, which are normally very conservative with tropical cyclone development, forecasts that the remains of TD 9 to try and regenerate some in the northwestern Caribbean to perhaps a tropical depression again or even a low end tropical storm by this weekend before it weakens again as it tracks northwestward towards the southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Lastly, not all of the models have dropped the idea of tropical cyclone regeneration in the northwestern Caribbean. The FIM model forecasts that TD 9 will regenerate into a tropical cyclone this weekend as it tracks near the Gulf of Honduras. The FIM model then goes on to forecast that this system, which appears to be a upper end tropical storm, will track northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean reaching the Yucatan Channel around Tuesday and then pushing into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday of next week.

My Thoughts: Even though many of the model guidance members have dropped the idea of TD 9 regenerating in the northwestern Caribbean, I want to keep a very close eye on this system while it is in the northwestern Caribbean starting this weekend. The model guidance over the past 24 hours should be considered suspect and there is a reason why for this:

Back during the late afternoon hours of October 20th, many of the satellite feeds that go into NOAA and the National Weather Service failed. I have learned since then that this data outage may have affected the performance and accuracy of many of the American models, including the GFS, NAM and HRRR models. What is suspect is that the GFS model suddenly dropped the idea of a tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean yesterday morning while the European model (not affected by the satellite outage) actually became a little more aggressive with its hints of tropical development. I’m questioning the validity of the American model data and think that much of the guidance data from yesterday was garbage, especially yesterday afternoon’s and last night’s GFS model data.

Since then, the satellite feed seems to have been restored and this fresh data will be fed into today’s model data.

So, it is of my opinion that I want to keep a close eye on what is left of TD 9 this weekend when it is in the northwestern Caribbean. I am reluctantly calling for a low chance of the regeneration of TD 9, however, as I had mentioned in my previous updates, this setup of possible tropical development continues to have a high degree of uncertainty and it warrants close scrutiny.

Click for the full Tropical Weather Report


It's the calm before the storm and the clouds are rolling in over Ambergris Caye! (4 photos)




NEMO Monitors Bad Weather

At 3:00pm today, the National Emergency Management Organization issued advisory number one on Tropical Depression No. 9 which was situated at the Bay of Campeche, West of Belize. NEMO reported that the depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour.

Movement was towards the east-southeast at 5 miles per hour. As the system crosses the landmass of the Yucatan Peninsula, coming from the West towards Belize, it is expected to weaken. The intensity forecasts are pointing to a much weakened circulation over Belize Friday morning. The release states that showers, heavy at times, along with some outbreaks of thundershowers, will greatly increase the risk of flooding over the next 4 to 5 days.

NEMO advises the general public to make plans for blustery and squally weather conditions and flooding possibilities. The Belize Weather Bureau in its 6 pm forecast says that cloudy to overcast skies with some outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms will affect the central and northern parts of the country tonight and on Friday. Westerly to south-westerly winds at between 5 and 15 knots will produce light choppy sea conditions. But gusty conditions near showers and thunderstorms will make the sea locally rough. Therefore operators of small craft on the coastal areas of Belize are being advised to exercise caution in rough seas. The wet and showery conditions will continue into Saturday; but hey conditions will start improving on Saturday.


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#497207 - 10/24/14 01:15 AM Re: Invest 94L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Jeff Masters:

ex-TD 9 is bringing some heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters, and this activity will continue into the weekend. By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. will inject a large amount of dry air into the Western Caribbean this weekend, discouraging development, and wind shear is expected to be a rather high 15 - 25 knots, which should keep any development slow. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.




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#497210 - 10/24/14 02:15 AM Re: Invest 94L [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline
Almost funny, if we didn't need to take storm threats so seriously. It could go South but might go North unless it goes East then it would go West and this might be Thursday or Friday, or maybe Saturday or Sunday, It might turn around and hit us on Monday or Tuesday. Quite a science.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NOAA usually gets it right and they say 10% chance of it becoming something to worry about.
_________________________
The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/

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#497222 - 10/24/14 09:39 AM Re: Invest 94L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

TD 9 is no more; but its remnants will still drench Belize

USA National Weather Service

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The system is expected to move eastward across northern Belize this morning and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by this afternoon, and it has a small chance of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Crown Weather this morning:

One Large Complex Mess From The Northwestern Caribbean To The Northern Bahamas Still Needs Some Monitoring Right Through This Weekend

What is left of Tropical Depression #9 is expected to be left behind in the northwestern Caribbean throughout this weekend where we should at least keep an eye on it throughout the weekend and into early next week. Right now, none of the model guidance are forecasting re-generation of TD 9. The weather pattern this weekend across the northwestern Caribbean will include an injection of dry air pushing southeastward into the western Caribbean and wind shear of at least 15 to 25 knots. This combination of wind shear and dry air is likely to squash any chances of TD 9 redeveloping and at this point I give the chances of TD 9 redeveloping this weekend into early next week about 5 to 10 percent.

These two weather features, the non-tropical low pressure system in the Florida Straits and what is left of TD 9 will produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts across the northwestern Caribbean, central and western Cuba, south Florida and the Florida Keys from today through Saturday.

Click for the full Tropical Weather Report



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#497240 - 10/24/14 05:33 PM Re: Invest 94L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Invest 94L in Western Caribbean Little Threat to Develop
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2014

The remains of Tropical Depression Nine, which dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, were moving offshore of Belize into the Western Caribbean on Friday morning. This disturbance is being labeled Invest 94L by NHC. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 94L has only a few poorly-organized clusters of heavy thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis were predicting development of 94L in their Friday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. is bringing high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots to the Western Caribbean and is injecting dry air, which is discouraging development. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model indicates that these hostile conditions will persist into early next week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.


Latest satellite image of Invest 94L in the Western Caribbean.

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#497260 - 10/25/14 10:43 AM Re: Invest 94L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
Accuweather

10/25/2014 4:00:31 AM

The sheared remains of Tropical Depression 9 are located just east of the lower Yucatan coast and they will slowly shift east and south through the weekend before stalling near the Honduran or Nicaraguan coast early next week. Since waters are quite warm and there is less wind shear near the Honduran coast, there is some chance of reorganization later this weekend or early next week. However, dry air to the north of the system and interaction with the Central American coast will be inhibiting factors.

Click for the full Tropical Weather Report


TD 9 Inundates Belize

Tropical depression number 9 passed over Belize last night into early this morning. The remains of the tropical depression are now near the lower Yucatan coast and they will slowly shift east and south through the weekend. The main impact from this system will be heavy rain over Central America- but according to our Chief Met Officer, there will be a cold front crossing over Belize early tomorrow morning that will break it up.

Dennis Gonguez - Chief Met Officer
"Tropical Depression #9 formed in the Bay of Campeche couple days ago and moved across the Yucatan Peninsula as it cross the land mass of Yucatan Peninsula it weakened and during the course of last night and this morning the remains of tropical depression #9 cross Belize and hence the increment weather conditions that we had yesterday and earlier this morning. The remains of tropical depression #9 continue moving eastwards, however, there is a cold front that's entering the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and eventually crossing Belize before dawn tomorrow. Cold air from this cold front will wrap around into the remnants of tropical depression #9 and that will impede its redevelopment for a couple of days and subsequent to that the cold front will lie on Sunday evening near to the northeastern Honduras and the remnants of tropical depression #9 will also be at the tail end of the cold front at near northeastern Honduras. The more tricky part comes on Monday when the cold air breaks up over us and whatever is out there starts moving westwards us on Monday. We are not sure what it will be. Presently all the intensification models are forecasting that - it will not reach anywhere. Tropical depression #9 will not redevelop. However we still have to be cautious that something could happen at the tail end of the cold front because typically this time of the year that is the scenario that occurs - that we get systems developing at the tail ends of cold fronts. We start Monday afternoon with a more easterly flow and as a consequence whatever is over northeastern Honduras will start to head towards us. So we are looking at some changes come Monday, possibly just rains, another rainfall scenario and as I said the models are not intensifying the remains of tropical depression #9. They are not developing it into anything, however we still just have to keep an eye on it over the weekend."

So it will be a wet weekend.

Channel 7


Weekend Looks to Be Cold and Wet

We are a little over thirty days away from the end of the Hurricane Season for 2014, but this time of the year is when the Caribbean is most active and favorable for the development of storms. Earlier this week, tropical depression number nine formed over the south western Bay of Campeche and for the past two days, the northern and central part of Belize have been experiencing inclement weather. Several areas in the city are under water and the river banks are flooded and murky from the recent downpour. The remnants of tropical depression number nine passed over Belize on Thursday night. But will the heavy rains persist over the weekend? At a press briefing today at the National Meteorological Service, Chief Met Officer Dennis Gonguez told the media that they are monitoring the system because typically this time of the year systems develop at the tail end of cold fronts.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

Dennis Gonguez

“During the course of last night and this morning, the remains of Tropical depression number nine crossed Belize and hence the inclement weather conditions that we had yesterday and earlier this morning. The remains continue moving eastwards, however, there is a cold front that is entering the Yucatan peninsula tonight and will eventually crossing Belize before dawn tomorrow. Cold air from this cold front will wrap around the remnants of tropical depression number nine and that will impede its redevelopment for a couple of days. And subsequent to that, the cold front will lie on Sunday evening, the cold front will be near to the northeastern Honduras and the remnants of tropical depression number nine will also be at the tail end of the cold front near northeastern Honduras. The more tricky part comes on Monday when the cold air breaks up over us and whatever is out there starts moving westward towards us on Monday. We are not sure what it will be. Presently all the intensification modules are forecasting that it will not regenerate…tropical depression nine will not redevelop at this time. However, we still have to be cautious that something will happen at the tail end of the cold fronts because typically this time of the year that is the scenario that occurs; that we get systems developing at the tail end of cold fronts.  On Monday, we start Monday afternoon, with a more easterly flow. And as a consequence, whatever that is over northeastern Honduras will start to head towards us. So we are looking at some changes come on Monday again…possibly just rain, another major rainfall scenario. And as I said, the modules are not intensifying the remains of tropical depression nine; they are not developing it into anything, however, we still have to keep an eye out for it over the weekend.”

More on the forecast is coming up later in the weather report.  

Channel 5


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#497280 - 10/26/14 10:51 AM Re: Invest 94L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

The sheared remains of Tropical Depression 9 is sitting over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Since waters are quite warm and there is less wind shear near the Honduran coast, there is some chance of reorganization this week. However, dry air to the north of the system and interaction with the Central American coast will be inhibiting factors. High pressure currently over the Gulf of Mexico will shift east across Florida early this week before reaching Bermuda by midweek. This will then steer the system into Central America or perhaps back into the lower Yucatan Peninsula.

Click for the full Tropical Weather Report

From Belmopan... 09:00 BZT

They think the Low just to the East of Belize, that caused all the rain, may well move back over Belize.

And they might be right with that.



NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

On this Sunday morning, a small low pressure system - the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine - is producing limited thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Caribbean Sea about midway between Jamaica and Honduras. Redevelopment is not expected for the next day or two while the disturbance interacts with a cold front. After that time, some slow development could occur while the low drifts southward and then westward near the coast of northern Honduras.



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Chaa Creek is an award-winning luxury Belize Resort, rated as one of the worlds best Eco Lodges. We are a pioneer in adventure travel to Belize since 1981!
White Sands Dive Shop - 5 Star PADI Dive Facility - Daily diving, SCUBA instruction and Snorkeling
Caribbean Inspired All Natural Condiments & Spice Blends, Over 100 are Gluten Free!
We manage a variety of homes, apartments, condos and commercial properties here on Ambergris Caye. Our minimum lease on ALL properties is six months.
Conch Shell Inn: All rooms are right on the beach in the heart of San Pedro, so within walking distance to anything and everything!!
Lil’ Alphonse has snorkel equipment to fit anyone as well as Marine Park Tickets and flotation devices to assist those not as experienced.
Coastal Xpress offers a daily scheduled ferry run to most resorts, restaurants and private piers on the island of Anbergris Caye. We also offer  private and charter water taxi service.
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