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#507039 - 08/31/15 10:57 AM Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2015
Marty Online   happy

Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2015

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: A slight increase in moisture will affect some areas of the country today and tomorrow. Mainly fair and warm conditions will dominate our weather the next few days.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will affect mostly inland areas today then become generally isolated tonight. Sunny with cloudy spells tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will be generally isolated.
Winds: East - southeast 5-15 knots.
Marine Forecast:
Today: Winds: E-SE 5-15 kts.; seas: Light chop - choppy.; waves: 2-4 ft.; isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Tomorrow: Winds: E-NE 5-15 kts.; seas: Light chop - choppy.; waves: 2-4 ft.; a few showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Marine Outlook: (Tuesday night) Winds: East 5-15 kts.; seas: Light chop - choppy; waves: 2-4 ft.; isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Sea Surface Temp (°F): 85
General Outlook: Some cloudy spells with a few showers and thunderstorms mostly along coastal areas tues. Then decreasing Tuesday night.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am the center of Hurricane Fred was located near 15.6N latitude, 22.9W longitude or about 35mls south of Rabil in the Cape Verde Islands. Fred was moving NW at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 80mph.

Click for our daily Tropical Weather Report

Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro
Wind & weather forecast for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro: Great information for sailors...
Caribbean winds site: An animated map of Caribbean wind and weather. Click for a green circle or position, showing the exact location longitude and latitude, temp and wind speed.
Current Caye Caulker Weather Information
Belize Hydrological & Flooding Information
Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

  High Low
Coastal 32° C
90° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 37° C
98° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 29° C
84° F
21° C
70° F
TIDES:
High - 11:04 AM Low - 5:14 PM
High - 11:24 PM Low - 5:37 AM (TUES.)
Sunrise - 5:39 AM Moonset - 7:27 AM
Sunset - 6:07 PM Moonrise - 7:51 PM

CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data


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#507043 - 08/31/15 11:32 AM Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2015 [Re: Marty]
elbert Offline

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have sun and calm sea. Our expected high is 90.
_________________________
The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/

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#507045 - 08/31/15 01:55 PM Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 31, 2015 [Re: Marty]
Marty Online   happy

From Belmopan...

That second line of cloud from the collapsing Erika crossed over Belize this morning, causing a patchy line of scattered rain showers the full length of the country, that is dying out, the remaining rain is going towards the Yucatan, we could get the odd shower later today, there is still moisture out in the Caribbean.

I expect today, after this cloud has cleared, to be mainly sunny, but with white cloud building, there could be the odd isolated shower.


Temperatures in Belmopan:
Today is probably going to be Similar, to yesterday : Sun, max 35°C 94°F Last night min 26°C 80°F ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )


Monthly Weather Summary, August 2015

Climate statistics show that the main weather features that affect the country of Belize during August are tropical waves, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) and an occasional tropical cyclone. The month of August is also characterized by a two-week dry spell referred to locally as the ‘Maga Season’.

August 2015 saw the passage of three tropical waves. Although a few of them were enhanced by several TUTTs, they were nevertheless rather weak and produced limited precipitation. No tropical cyclone affected the country during August this year which is overall reflective of the rather benign 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. An intense El Nino is responsible for the inactive season. This system is also wreaking havoc across the area as drought conditions are being experienced across most of the region including Belize. This resulted in a dry and warm August across the country.

This first day of August 2015 started off mostly sunny with only isolated showers affecting the country. However a weak tropical wave was approaching and it crossed overnight. This produced a slight increase in moisture but by the 2nd moisture was decreasing once more and showers and thunderstorms were generally isolated. Between these two days Pomona in the south recorded 6.3 mm of rain while Hershey recorded 25.1 mm.

Conditions were mainly fair and warm on the 3rd of the month with only a few brief morning showers in the interior. Similar conditions persisted on the 4th. The second tropical wave for the month crossed the country on the 5th. This system was enhanced by an upper level low and produced rainfall amounts of 7.9 mm, 6.1 mm and 9.5 mm at Belmopan, Tower Hill and Libertad, respectively. The upper low continued to produce divergent conditions on the night of the 5th and even on the 6th, although low level moisture had decreased once more. Central Farm recorded 25.0 mm of rainfall on the 6th while Hershey recorded 24.0 mm.

Warm and mostly dry conditions prevailed across the country from the 7th to the 10th and then moisture and instability increases slightly on the 11th. The main culprit was an upper level low over Yucatan which helped to support divergent conditions aloft over Belize. This resulted in cloudy spells with a few showers affecting mainly inland areas of the country. Belmopan recorded 40.1 mm of rainfall that day while Hershey got 24.0 mm.

The 12th saw a return to mostly dry conditions over the country but a few morning showers were noted. Although Melinda recorded its monthly maximum rainfall of 35.5 mm on the 13th, it was a generally dry day across the country. A similar trend continued on the 14th. However, a tropical wave (the third for the month) and an upper level low crossed the country during the night of the 14th. Left over activity from these systems produced a few morning showers and thunderstorms on the 15th. 11.3 mm of rainfall was reported at Savannah while Hershey recorded 30.0 mm. The low/trough west of the area kept upper level conditions relatively divergent on the 16 and 17th and supported generally isolated showers and thunderstorms across the country.

Conditions became mostly dry from the 18th through to the 23rd. Of the 11 stations sampled for this report, none reported significant rainfall during this period. A dry east to southeasterly airflow prevailed at the surface. While an upper low crossed the country on the night of the 21st, it did not produce any significant activity. The exception was the extreme south where an isolated thunderstorm developed that night.

The 23rd to the 28th of the month saw a slack pressure pattern develop over the area. This resulted in light winds which cause the daytime heat to become almost unbearable across the country. Rainfall continued generally low during this period but a digging polar trof from across the Gulf of Mexico would help to produce upper level instability on the 27th and 28th. This resulted in an increase in rainfall on these days. 7 of the 11 stations recorded rainfall above 5 mm on the 27th which could be characterized as a relatively wet day. The activity was mostly over the south and coast during the morning of the 27th and over inland areas during the afternoon. On the 28th activity decreased slightly but 4 stations still recorded significant rainfall (above 5 mm). The highest was Hershey with a total of 36.2 mm.

Rainfall totals decreased once more from the 29th through the 31st. The main surface feature to affect the country during this period was a surface trof which was the remnants of former Tropical Storm Erika. This caused light East to Northeasterly winds on the 29th through to early on the 30th. However, winds became East to Southeasterly later on the 30th through to the 31st and conditions continued mostly dry.

In Summary the month of August 2015 could be considered a very dry and warm month. Although a brief dry spell (the Maga Season) can be expected in this month, the dry was much more severe this year. The most likely culprit is the strong El Nino currently affecting the region. This feature continues to produce extreme drought conditions over the area. The table below summarizes the rainfall totals for the 11 sampled stations across the country compared to their monthly average. As can be seen, most stations recorded well below their average rainfall totals for the month.

Stations

August 2015 Rainfall (mm)

August Average rainfall (mm) 1981-2010

Analysis

Airport

43.3

145.9-201.6

Below Normal

Belmopan

64.6

193.2-282.6

Below Normal

Tower Hill

29.0

160.1-191.0

Below Normal

Libertad

36.7

117.7-175.7

Below Normal

Savannah

57.9

311.4-398.5

Below Normal

Central Farm

25.5

126.2-203.0

Below Normal

Melinda

62.3

218.7-241.7

Below Normal

Pomona

66.7

239.6-324.7

Below Normal


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