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#5084 - 10/03/00 04:34 PM 9am Tues, Official Reports
Marty Offline
<img align=left width=130 height=110 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/looptues9asm.gif"><img align=right width=160 height=157 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bwtues9asm.jpg">
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2000

...KEITH WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...WEST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=225 height=192 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/bigonetues9asm.jpg">

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD STILL
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPORTS OF
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ARE EXCEEDING 25 TO 30 INCHES. REPORTS HAVE
ALSO BEEN RECEIVED OF NUMEROUS HOUSES DEMOLISHED IN SAN
PEDRO...WHICH SPENT OVER 24 HOURS IN THE WEST EYEWALL OF THE
HURRICANE.


REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
<br clear=all><img align=right width=180 height=207 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/geos20sm.jpg">

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion


869
WTNT45 KNHC 031446
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND KEITH IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING SMARTLY TO THE WEST OVER
SOUTHERN YUCATAN...BUT THERE MAY BE A LOWER LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST.

DATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM JET MISSION IN THE GULF LAST NIGHT SHOWED A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE
DATA WERE WELL-ANALYZED BY THE AVN BUT SEEMINGLY NOT SO BY THE
UKMET. UNFORTUNATELY THE AVN AGAIN HAS KEITH IN THE WRONG
PLACE...SO WE CANNOT RELY MUCH ON MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AND THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...IT IS HARD TO SEE KEITH MAKING AS MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS
INDICATED BY THE BULK OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
RESTRENGTHENING ONCE KEITH GETS BACK OVER WATER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     03/1500Z 18.3N  89.4W    30 KTS
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.5N  90.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 19.1N  91.3W    25 KTS
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.2N  92.4W    35 KTS
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  93.5W    50 KTS
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N  95.0W    65 KTS
  
  
 

Hurricane KEITH
 ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1  16.10  -82.90 09/28/21Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   2  16.20  -83.20 09/29/03Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   3  16.20  -83.20 09/29/09Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   4  17.20  -84.30 09/29/15Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   5  17.60  -85.20 09/29/21Z   45   995 TROPICAL STORM
  5A  17.70  -85.30 09/30/00Z   45   995 TROPICAL STORM
   6  17.90  -85.30 09/30/03Z   45   995 TROPICAL STORM
  6A  17.80  -85.50 09/30/06Z   55   995 TROPICAL STORM
   7  18.10  -86.30 09/30/09Z   60   985 TROPICAL STORM
  7A  18.20  -86.40 09/30/12Z   60   985 TROPICAL STORM
   8  18.00  -86.60 09/30/15Z   70   984 HURRICANE-1
  8A  18.00  -86.60 09/30/18Z   70   982 HURRICANE-1
   9  18.00  -86.80 09/30/21Z   85   970 HURRICANE-2
  9A  18.00  -87.00 10/01/00Z   90   966 HURRICANE-2
  10  18.10  -87.10 10/01/03Z  100   960 HURRICANE-3
 10A  18.10  -87.40 10/01/06Z  105   955 HURRICANE-3
  11  18.00  -87.30 10/01/09Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
 11A  18.20  -87.50 10/01/12Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
  12  18.10  -87.60 10/01/15Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
 12A  17.90  -87.70 10/01/18Z  115   942 HURRICANE-4
  13  17.90  -87.90 10/01/21Z  110   951 HURRICANE-3
 13A  17.80  -87.80 10/02/00Z   95   958 HURRICANE-2
  14  17.90  -87.90 10/02/03Z  100   958 HURRICANE-3
 14A  17.90  -87.90 10/02/04Z  100   958 HURRICANE-3
 14B  17.80  -87.90 10/02/06Z  100   958 HURRICANE-3
  15  17.60  -87.80 10/02/09Z   85   975 HURRICANE-2
 15A  17.70  -87.80 10/02/12Z   80   979 HURRICANE-1
  16  17.70  -87.80 10/02/15Z   70   979 HURRICANE-1
 16A  17.70  -87.90 10/02/18Z   65   979 HURRICANE-1
  17  17.70  -88.00 10/02/21Z   65   987 HURRICANE-1
 17A  17.90  -88.00 10/03/00Z   65   988 HURRICANE-1
  18  18.00  -88.10 10/03/03Z   60   988 TROPICAL STORM
 18A  18.10  -88.10 10/03/06Z   55   989 TROPICAL STORM
  19  18.30  -88.70 10/03/09Z   45   993 TROPICAL STORM
 19A  18.30  -88.90 10/03/12Z   40   993 TROPICAL STORM
  20  18.30  -89.40 10/03/15Z   30   995 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 +12  18.50  -90.20 10/04/00Z   25     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 +24  19.10  -91.30 10/04/12Z   25     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 +36  20.20  -92.40 10/05/00Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
 +48  21.50  -93.50 10/05/12Z   50     - TROPICAL STORM
 +72  25.00  -95.00 10/06/12Z   65     - HURRICANE-1
</font>



[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-03-2000).]

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#5085 - 10/03/00 05:11 PM Re: 9am Tues, Official Reports
Marty Offline
add pics

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