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#514135 - 06/02/16 10:36 AM Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA
Marty Offline

TUESDAY MAY 31 – JUNE 7, 2016

The 2016 Rainy Season will definitely not begin on the first day of June this year. Another week of punishing hot and dry weather will persist before we get some significant and persistent rainfall. The years 2008 and 2003 are two of the analogous years to 2016. So we all have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best this hurricane season. Measured (YSI) and remotely observed SST (satellite sensors) in the western Caribbean are around 30 degrees Celsius or 86 Fahrenheit; a warm pool in the western Caribbean.

Model projections and current atmospheric conditions over the Caribbean and northern Central America indicate that the summer (rainy season) circulation pattern are now in place, with a major Upper Level trough over the central and eastern Caribbean, a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean heading towards Nicaragua, and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bulging northward over Central America this morning (See Fig. 1 Surface weather map). However, no major system is expected to drift over the NW Caribbean and Belize during the next three to five days to generate a persistent rainfall event, marking the onset of the 2016 Rain Season. Hence, the 2016 Rainy Season will be delayed by almost five to seven days. Significant and persistent rainfall will gradually begin by next Monday and continue through Thursday of next week.


The 2016 intense Dry Season will persist at least for the next seven (days). Scattered outbreaks of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are likely to develop over the South and West on Thursday and Friday, increasing on Saturday then decreasing on Sunday and Monday. An upsurge in showers and thunderstorms is forecast for next Tuesday through Thursday, with daily accumulations in excess of an inch particularly in the South, West and some areas of the coastal zone. This activity will be associated with low pressure disturbance in the NW Caribbean and northern Central America, pulling in moisture from the Pacific. This will likely mark the onset of the 2016 Rainy Season over Belize.

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NOAA Outlook for Central America June 1 - 8, 2016

After another week of below-average rainfall, moisture deficits are increasing for many parts of the region.

A pattern of suppressed rainfall was again in place across the region. Observed weekly rainfall according to TRMM was widely 25-100mm below average. Heavy precipitation was confined to the Gulf of Fonseca region, where around 100mm fell. Local parts of southwestern Guatemala received similar amounts. Outside of these areas, rains were generally light. Many parts of northern Guatemala and northern Honduras received nearly no rainfall. With another poor week of rainfall registered, longer-term rainfall deficits continue to deepen and expand over the region. Patchy 30-day deficits of greater than 100mm are scattered throughout the Central American countries. The picture is similarly poor dating back to the beginning of April. In some parts of central Guatemala and northern Honduras less than 25% of normal precipitation has been received. As a result, satellite estimation vegetation indices have indicated degraded ground conditions. These are most apparent in central and northern Guatemala as well as central Honduras. It is expected that an expanding area of cropping activities are likely to be negatively affected by these conditions.

Forecast models indicate that Heavy above-average rains are likely in many central and western portions of the region during the outlook period. The most significant rainfall is likely to be in El Salvador and southern Guatemala where upwards of 300mm could fall. Many other areas of western Nicaragua, southern/central Honduras, El Salvador, and southern Guatemala can expect more than 100mm of rain. Parts of eastern Nicaragua are more likely to receive below-average rain totals closer to 25mm. This pattern should help to alleviate some of the abnormal dryness.



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#514276 - 06/09/16 09:41 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America June 9 - 15, 2016

The first growing season expected to begin during the next week.

Insufficient and infrequent rainfall has been observed over Central America since the beginning of April. The lack of rain has affected the northern portions of the region, including the Jalapa, Zacapa, El Progreso, Chiquimula, Izabal, and Peten departments of eastern and northern Guatemala, western and northern Honduras, and El Salvador. Across these regions, accumulated rain over the past two months has accounted less than 50 percent of the average, indicating large moisture deficits that have already negatively impacted cropping activities. During the past week, an increase in rainfall was observed mostly over southern Central America, where downpours were recorded. Heavy rain also caused localized flooding in southern Guatemala. In contrast, light and below-average rain continued over the northern portions as Guatemala, western El Salvador, and Honduras. This has further increased thirty-day rainfall deficits over the dry portions of the region. If the May-August rainfall season does not start over the upcoming weeks, it may adversely impact crops again after drought-stricken, below-average yields during the previous years.

During the next week, rainfall forecasts indicate a significant increase in rainfall across Central America. This may announce the onset of the first growing season. Abundant rain is expected over Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras, and the Southern Caribbean. Moderate to heavy and average to below-average rain is expected, however, throughout the central parts and Atlantic Basin of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. The forecast uptake in rain should help alleviate dryness over many areas, but it also may trigger localized flooding over some areas.


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#514605 - 06/16/16 09:46 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America June 16 - 22, 2016

Wet weather is forecast to continue during the next seven days.

The recent increase in rainfall has been beneficial to the Primera, May-August season, in Central America. During the past seven days, widespread, heavy and above-average rain was observed across most areas, with the heaviest rain in northern Guatemala, Belize, the Gulf of Honduras, Gulf of Fonseca, and eastern Nicaragua. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rain was recorded elsewhere. Although the stark increase in rainfall over the past two weeks has helped to eliminate thirty-day moisture deficits over many local areas of northern Central America, moderate, negative rainfall anomalies have persisted over the western, northern, and eastern parts of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. In Guatemala, poor rain during April and May has already led to wilted crops over some areas. Recent vegetation health indices have indicated mostly marginal to above-average conditions over Central America.

For next week, wet weather patterns are expected to continue over Central America, with heavy rain over southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, Gulf of Fonseca, and the Southern Caribbean. Though the forecast, abundant rain should help eliminate moisture deficits over many areas, excess moisture could also exacerbate conditions over already-saturated and flood prone areas. This includes this past week’s flood-stricken areas of the Sumpango, Sacatepéquez department of Guatemala, and San Miguel Arcangel, Tegucigalpa of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to moderate rain is forecast.


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#515388 - 06/23/16 11:02 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America June 23 - 29, 2016

Seasonal to slightly above-average rainfall forecast during the next week.

During the past week, heavy rainfall was observed much of Guatemala, western El Salvador, and the eastern slopes of Honduras and Nicaragua. In Guatemala, flooding and affected people have been reported over many local areas of the country, including the Escuintla, Zacapa, and Quetzaltenango departments, following abundant rain during the past two weeks. Meanwhile, light to moderate rainfall fell across the interior of Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Despite the recent onset of seasonal rainfall, the northern two-thirds of Guatemala, much of Honduras, central El Salvador, and central Nicaragua have accumulated thirty-day rainfall deficits between 50-200 mm. In western Guatemala, the delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall have already resulted in wilted, early-planted crops. A favorable distribution of seasonal rainfall is needed to mitigate dryness and ensure proper development of crops over many local areas.

During the next week, seasonal to slightly above-average rainfall is forecast over Central America, with heavy rain across southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca, Gulf of Honduras, and Atlantic coastlines of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is also expected throughout the inland of region. The forecast rainfall may help reduce or eliminate moisture deficits over some areas, though the consistent rainfall could also trigger flooding or exacerbate conditions over previously-flooded and saturated areas.


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#515671 - 06/30/16 10:51 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America June 30 – July 6, 2016

Little relief to dryness expected over Guatemala and Honduras.

In the last seven days, seasonal rains continued throughout Central America, however below-average totals were again registered across many anomalously dry regions. The highest weekly precipitation accumulations (>100mm) were received throughout many coastal areas in the Yucatan peninsula, southern Guatemala, and along the Atlantic coastline of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Lesser, but well distributed totals were received over many interior departments of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Since the end of May, seasonal dryness continues to strengthen across many central regions of Guatemala and Honduras. While many of these areas have experienced an increased number of days of rain during this span, several weeks of below-average totals have led to many areas experiencing between 50 to 80 percent of their normal rainfall accumulation over the past three months. In western Guatemala, the delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall have already resulted in wilted, early-planted crops. A failure of Primera rains by mid-summer would mark the 3rd consecutively failed season of Guatemala and Honduras.

During the next week, little improvement to the anomalous dryness is expected as precipitation forecasts suggest largely suppressed rainfall throughout the Atlantic basin of Central America. Below-average precipitation totals over portions of northern Guatemala and central Honduras are likely to strengthen seasonal dryness.


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#515810 - 07/07/16 09:34 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America July 7 - 13, 2016

Slight relief to dryness possible over some parts of Guatemala and Honduras.

In the last seven days, seasonal rains continued throughout Central America, however below-average totals remained prevalent across many anomalously dry regions. The highest weekly precipitation accumulations (>300mm) were received throughout some areas along the Atlantic coastline of Nicaragua. Other regions receiving high rainfall totals include the Gulf of Honduras region, Pacific facing departments of Guatemala and throughout El Salvador. Other areas received lighter, below normal, rainfall. These include western Nicaragua, central Honduras, and the higher elevations of Guatemala. Since the end of May, seasonal dryness continues to remain entrenched across many central regions of Guatemala and Honduras. Though many of these areas have experienced a normal number of days of rain during this span, several weeks of below-average totals have led to many areas experiencing between 50 to 80 percent of their normal rainfall accumulation over the past three months. In western Guatemala, the delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall have already resulted in wilted, early-planted crops. A failure of Primera rains by mid-summer would mark the 3rd consecutively failed season of Guatemala and Honduras.

During the next week, marginal improvement to the anomalous dryness is possible as precipitation forecasts suggest increased rainfall for areas of central Guatemala and western Honduras. Below-average precipitation totals over portions of northern Guatemala and central Honduras are likely to strengthen seasonal dryness. Wetter-than-average conditions should continue for parts of southern Guatemala, El Salvador and eastern Nicaragua, with locally torrential rains.


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#515827 - 07/08/16 09:09 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Weekly AgroMet Update and Outlook JULY 7 – FRIDAY JULY 15, 2016

An active tropical wave with strong outflow aloft will continue westward across northern Central America and southern Mexico tonight and on Friday, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over southern and western Belize. The seasonally, unsettled conditions will persist through the weekend and most of next week in association of a low level jet in the easterly flow over the western Caribbean and Central America and good outflow support in the upper atmosphere. A second tropical wave or perturbation in the easterlies is expected to cross Belize by Monday, generating more showery weather. Figure 1 below is the surface weather map for Thursday evening, showing the first tropical wave approaching Belize and Guatemala. A third tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, and should reach Belize in the next five days.


Surface Weather map valid for 8:42 p.m. Thursday, July 7, 2016 showing Tropical Wave moving through northern Central America tonight and Friday morning.

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#515966 - 07/14/16 09:31 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America July 14 – July 20, 2016

Suppressed rains continued over some anomalously dry areas of Central America.

In the last seven days, rains have been seasonably distributed. However, totals remained below average for several already anomalously dry regions. The highest weekly precipitation accumulations (>300mm) were received over a large area of eastern Nicaragua. Similarly large amounts of rain were observed in the Gulf of Belize region. Heavy rains (100-200mm) were also observed in southern Guatemala and western El Salvador. Other areas received lighter and below-normal rainfall, notably in central Honduras and through western Nicaragua. The Gulf of Fonseca region observed nearly no rainfall. Since the end of May, seasonal dryness remains entrenched across many central parts of Guatemala and Honduras. Roughly two weeks of above-normal rain has removed existing long-term deficits around the Gulf of Belize. Dryness in western and central Nicaragua is more recent. There, rainfall deficits are becoming more widespread and vegetation health indices indicate that the meteorological situation is starting to have a negative impact on surface conditions.

During the upcoming period, rainfall is expected to be less extreme than last week in areas of eastern Nicaragua and central Guatemala. Despite the possibility of some locally heavy rain showers, rainfall is likely to be generally suppressed slightly below-average, especially in northern parts of the region. The pattern could strengthen seasonal dryness throughout Guatemala and northern Honduras. Areas along the east coast Of Nicaragua and areas just to the south of the Gulf of Belize are likely to receive the most rain this week.


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#516119 - 07/21/16 10:50 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America July 21 - 27, 2016

Poor rainfall performance across most of the region last week has exacerbated the abnormal dryness throughout the region.

Over the last 7 days, rainfall was below average for most areas of Central America. Many locales only received less than 25mm of rain for the week. These included many parts of central Guatemala, central Honduras, and western Nicaragua. For some, those totals equate to less than a quarter of what they would normally receive for the period. Areas that did receive heavier rain (>150-200mm according to TRMM) include southern Guatemala and southeastern Nicaragua. While this was abnormally wet for parts of southern Guatemala, It was still slightly less than average for Nicaragua. Repeated weeks of poor rainfall performance are enlarging longer-term moisture deficits, both in magnitude and in coverage. Many local areas are now observing less than 50% of average rainfall over the last 30 days. Both eastern Honduras and western Nicaragua exhibit rapidly developing deficits. While vegetation indices are a little slow to respond, they are exhibiting a negative trend, especially in Honduras and western Nicaragua. In addition, soil moisture is reported to be very low in many central departments of Guatemala.

Continued suppression of rain is likely during the upcoming outlook period. Similar to the past week, rainfall should be greatest in southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. Still, most parts of the region will see near or below average precipitation. Should this forecast continue to verify, additional consecutive weeks of relatively dry weather will likely start to have greater negative impact on crops for many local areas. Upgrades in hazard level may start to become necessary.


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#516263 - 07/28/16 10:51 AM Re: Weekly AgroMet Weather Update & NOAA Outlook for CA [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NOAA Outlook for Central America July 28 – August 3, 2016

Erratic rainfall performance across most of the region continued last week, upholding regional abnormal dryness concerns.

Over the last 7 days, areas of eastern Nicaragua, El Salvador, and parts of Guatemala saw above-average rainfall, while most other areas saw suppression of rainfall. The easternmost departments of Nicaragua observed 100-200mm of rain, and similar totals were also observed in parts of Guatemala and El Salvador. While moderate rains were observed in eastern Guatemala, they were still well below normal totals. Some of the driest parts of the region included western Nicaragua and central Honduras; less than 10mm of rain was observed locally. As a result of this and several preceding weeks of poor rainfall performance, monthly rainfall deficits are on the increase in western Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca region of Honduras. Less than 25% of normal rain has fallen in the driest areas of western Nicaragua and southern Honduras over the 30-day period. Vegetation indices look poorest through eastern Guatemala, western Honduras and the Gulf of Fonseca region but don’t yet reflect poor conditions for other dry regions. In addition, soil moisture is reported to be very low in many central departments of Guatemala.

Rain is forecasted to be above normal along most of the Pacific coastal areas of Central America. Heavier rain showers could bring well in excess of 100mm of rain locally. This pattern may result in well-needed relief from dryness for western Nicaragua. Conversely, suppressed below-normal rainfall is likely for northern Guatemala. Much of Honduras and eastern Nicaragua is likely to receive closer to normal rainfall.


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