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#517299 - 09/02/16 01:34 PM Invest 92-L
Marty Offline

Tropical Disturbance Halfway Between The Lesser Antilles & The Coast Of Africa (Invest 92-L): A tropical wave that moved off of the coast of Africa earlier this week has become a little better organized this morning and I think that this is a system to keep a close eye on. In fact, this disturbance has been designated Invest 92-L again by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery indicates that there has been an increase in thunderstorm activity and this will be something to keep tabs on.

Right now, the environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development as it is surrounded by dry air and there is 25 to 40 knots of southwesterly wind shear nearby. At this point, I think that we will see slow development of Invest 92-L, however, it is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles on Saturday night and Sunday bringing with it gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, especially across the central and northern Lesser Antilles. At this point, I do not think that it will be a tropical depression or a tropical storm when it moves through the Lesser Antilles, however, I’m not totally discounting that possibility and it will be watched closely.

Beyond this, Invest 92-L is expected to move westward across the Caribbean Sea next week and may encounter a favorable to very favorable environment for development in the western Caribbean towards late next week. In fact, the GFS and Canadian model guidance both forecast Invest 92-L to strengthen into a tropical storm in either the western Caribbean late next week or in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. This scenario is actually quite possible as there is expected to be a favorable Madden Julian Oscillation pulse in place throughout next week and this could give this disturbance the extra kick it needs to develop into a tropical cyclone.

In conclusion, I think that we will see slow organization of Invest 92-L from today through this weekend as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean followed by the possibility of more robust development into a tropical storm in the western Caribbean later next week. Everyone across the Lesser Antilles and across the Caribbean should keep close tabs on Invest 92-L and it goes without saying that I will be watching it closely.

Invest 92L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Crown Weather


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#517302 - 09/02/16 01:45 PM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Judyann H. Offline
Geeeez Louise.....Looks like Earl has a relative.... frown
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#517306 - 09/02/16 05:33 PM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Jeff Masters:

Invest 92L trying to organize in tropical Atlantic
Satellite images show that shower activity has increased in association with a large tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands. Originally designated Invest 92L on Monday, this wave was no longer deemed worthy by NHC as an “Invest”, and they stopped issuing their suite of model forecasts for the system Tuesday through Thursday. The tropical wave was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert, which was preventing development. However, on Friday morning, NHC resumed their interest in this system, and the latest SHIPS model forecast for 92L shows low wind shear and warm SSTs for the next five days, favorable for development, as it moves west at 10 - 15 mph. The latest 0Z Friday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models—did not show development of the system over the next five days, and the large region of dry air that 92L is embedded in will keep any development slow. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday, and be near Hispaniola on Monday or Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC kept their 2-day and 5-day development odds at 10% and 20%, respectively.


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#517326 - 09/03/16 12:24 PM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Invest 92-L Located 600 Miles To The East Of The Lesser Antilles: A tropical disturbance, Invest 92-L, is pushing to the west towards the Lesser Antilles this morning. The shower and thunderstorm activity with Invest 92-L has increased during the overnight hours. Even with this increase in organization, any development of Invest 92-L is expected to be slow to occur. The reason why is that there is an area of 25 to 40 knots of wind shear located just east of the Lesser Antilles and this will shear anything that tries to develop apart.

Neither the GFS or European model guidance forecasts any type of development from Invest 92-L. The UKMET and Canadian model guidance, on the other hand, forecasts some development from Invest 92-L with these two models forecasting Invest 92-L to become a tropical storm as it moves across the central Lesser Antilles on Sunday, especially Guadeloupe and Dominica. Beyond this, the Canadian and UKMET model forecasts this system to weaken into a tropical wave as it moves into the central Caribbean early next week followed by re-intensification in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend.

For those of you in the Central Lesser Antilles, especially Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia & Barbados: Invest 92-L is expected to bring some heavy rainfall and gusty winds with gusts of up to 40-50 mph in squalls starting this evening and continuing through the overnight hours of tonight and through the day on Sunday. Everyone across the Lesser Antilles should keep a close eye on Invest 92-L in case it does try to spin up into a tropical storm over the next 24 to 36 hours or so.

Beyond this, I think that we will need to keep close tabs on Invest 92-L as it pushes across the Caribbean next week. The reason why the GFS model is not forecasting any sort of development is because it is forecasting very strong wind shear to be in place across the Caribbean throughout next week. It should be noted that the GFS model does forecast lower shear over the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This means that if Invest 92-L survives the strong shear across the eastern and central Caribbean, it has a chance to try and develop in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico late next week and next week.

Invest 92L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Courtesy of Weather Underground

Crown Weather


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#517335 - 09/04/16 11:09 AM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

92L path slides to the north

Satellite images show that shower activity has increased over the past day in association with a large tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 92L). However, the tropical wave was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert, which was slowing development and making 92L’s thunderstorms disorganized. The 8 am EDT Saturday SHIPS model forecast for 92L shows low wind shear and warm SSTs for the next four days--favorable for development--as it moves west at 15 - 20 mph, but shows the air surrounding 92L will grow even drier as it enters the eastern Caribbean, which should keep any development slow to occur. The latest 0Z Saturday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show development of the system over the next five days. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and be near Jamaica and Haiti on Tuesday. By Wednesday, when 92L will enter the Western Caribbean, it will find a moister environment and have more potential for development. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC bumped up their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 20% and 30%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 92L on Monday afternoon, if necessary.

A tropical wave expected to leave the coast of Africa on Tuesday could develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, predicted the 00Z Saturday run of the UKMET model. The 0Z Saturday run of the European model and 06Z Saturday run of the GFS model did not develop this tropical wave over the next five days, but did show development after that time. The NASA/GMAO model predicted that Sahara Desert dust and dry air machine would be moderately active during the week, and this new tropical wave will likely have its development hindered by dry air.


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#517341 - 09/05/16 11:07 AM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

92L growing more organized
Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that the moderate level of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a large tropical wave passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday (Invest 92L) had increased in intensity and organization since Saturday. The storm was bringing winds near tropical storm-force to the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning. La Desirade (Guadeloupe) reported sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 57mph at 9 am Sunday in a strong rain band that dumped 0.14” (3.6 mm) of rain; at 11 am, winds had decreased to a sustained 27 mph at the site. Some rotation of the storm’s echoes was apparent on Martinique radar, so we have to watch this tropical wave today to monitor it for further signs of development.

A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward westward path, and the storm will move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and be near Jamaica by Wednesday. If 92L does develop, it probably won’t last long. The 8 am EDT Sunday SHIPS model forecast for 92L showed moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots through through Tuesday, rising to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, for the latter part of the week. The latest 0Z Sunday operational runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show development of the system over the next five days. More than 40% of the 70 ensemble members of the 0Z Sunday runs of the GFS and European model did show 92L developing into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Monday, but all of them showed the storm being destroyed by high wind shear and dry air before reaching Jamaica on Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC kept their 2-day and 5-day development odds at 20% and 30%, respectively.


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#517347 - 09/05/16 01:48 PM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline
At this point, none of the global models forecast any type of development from Invest 92-L and this includes the Canadian model, which previously forecasted Invest 92-L to develop in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected that Invest 92-L will push west-northwestward across the Caribbean the rest of this week and is expected to reach the southern and western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The environmental conditions across much of the Caribbean are very unfavorable for development and I do not expect to see any sort of development for much of this week. If Invest 92-L survives the unfavorable conditions, it could try to develop in the westernmost Caribbean or the southern and western Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development late this week into this weekend. This is something that will need to be monitored as we get into late this week.

Crown Weather

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#517355 - 09/05/16 06:38 PM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Katie Valk Offline
Ah, much betta
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#517375 - 09/06/16 02:52 PM Re: Invest 92-L [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Still no tropical development expected, but its coming our way

Looks like this Tropical Wave may not develop but could be a little rain maker at the end of the week.


Invest 92-L Located Over The Central Caribbean: The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 92-L, which is located in the central Caribbean, is very disorganized this morning. Environmental conditions around Invest 92-L is marginally favorable, at best, with up to 40 knots of wind shear immediately to the west of this system. In addition, Invest 92-L is located in a unfavorable position relative to a upper level low pressure system that is located over central Cuba. All-in-all, any development of Invest 92-L will be extremely slow to occur throughout the rest of this week. One other factor that is hindering development is the fast forward movement of Invest 92-L.

None of the global models forecast any type of development from Invest 92-L and this is in fact quite possible. It is expected that Invest 92-L will push west-northwestward across the rest of the Caribbean over the next couple of days reaching the Yucatan Peninsula by about Thursday night or Friday. From there, Invest 92-L is forecast to push across the southern and western Gulf of Mexico this weekend reaching the area near the Texas coast around Monday or Tuesday of next week.

I do not expect to see any type of development from Invest 92-L the rest of this week. Now, if Invest 92-L survives the unfavorable environmental conditions it will encounter over the next couple of days or so, it could try to develop in the westernmost Caribbean or the southern and western Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development from Friday to Sunday. This is something that will need to be monitored as we get into late this week.

Invest 92L Information:



Crown Weather


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