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#517787 - 09/24/16 02:34 PM Tropical Storm Matthew In The Atlantic to Watch
Marty Offline

Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic Has The Potential To Be A Caribbean Hurricane Threat Next Weekend: Karl passed within about 60 miles of Bermuda late last night and early this morning bringing tropical storm conditions to the island. Karl is now moving away from Bermuda and will push northeastward into the open Atlantic over the next few days. The winds, rain and rough seas are forecast to subside throughout the rest of today and Sunday is likely to be a nice day across Bermuda.

So, we say goodbye to Karl and now focus on a tropical disturbance that is currently located in the eastern Atlantic. This particular tropical disturbance has the potential to become a really big problem when it moves into the Caribbean late next week and next weekend.

Current satellite imagery indicates that this tropical disturbance is producing some thunderstorm activity with some subtle signs of organization in the satellite presentation. Right now, the only impediment to development over the next couple of days is some 20 knots of southeasterly wind shear. This wind shear is forecast to decrease to 10 knots or less once this disturbance reaches 40 West Longitude by Sunday night and Monday. Other than this wind shear, the other environmental conditions, including moisture and sea surface temperatures, are favorable for development. This means that I think we will see this disturbance develop into a tropical depression perhaps as soon as Monday or Tuesday and possibly be a tropical storm when it reaches Barbados and the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.

All 3 major global models (GFS, European & Canadian) are forecasting that this system may become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean by late next weekend. At the same time, these models are also forecasting that a significant trough of low pressure over the central United States could steer this system into the Gulf of Mexico. Many things are likely to change with these models, but the fact is that these models are forecasting the potential for a hurricane threat in the western and northwestern Caribbean and possibly the Gulf of Mexico in 7 to 9 days from now. These model trends are quite concerning & something to watch closely.

The ensemble guidance agrees with their operational counterparts in forecasting a tropical system to be located in the eastern Caribbean by late next week and early next weekend. From there, the ensemble guidance members diverge with some members forecasting a turn to the north across the Bahamas and up the US East Coast during the October 3rd to October 7th time frame. Other ensemble members forecast a track across Jamaica and into the northwestern Caribbean next Sunday and next Monday followed by a track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the US northern Gulf Coast between October 5th and October 8th. This says to me that the model guidance are in good agreement on a track into the eastern Caribbean late next week. From there, however, the uncertainty on where this system tracks increases significantly and it is a disturbance to keep an eye on if you live anywhere from the Caribbean through the Gulf of Mexico, including the entire US Gulf Coast, through the Florida Peninsula up the US East Coast. I know it is a very large uncertainty area, but we are talking about a 10 day to 2 week forecast and these types of forecasts do have a large amount of uncertainty.



Here Are My Thoughts: I urge everyone in Barbados and the Lesser Antilles to keep a very close eye on the progress of this tropical disturbance. Be ready for tropical storm conditions, including heavy flooding rainfall, wind gusts of up to 60 mph and very rough seas, from late Tuesday night through Wednesday, Wednesday night and part of Thursday.

When looking at the current weather data and the model data, there are some things that do jump out at me. The first is that there is 25 to 40 knots of west-northwesterly wind shear occurring from the southern Gulf of Mexico through the entire Caribbean. If these strong wind shear values continue and do not decrease like the models are forecasting, then any tropical system moving across the Caribbean late next week, next weekend and beyond will likely weaken and dissipate due to these unfavorable environmental conditions.

The second item that jumps out at me is the overwhelming model guidance consistency in forecasting a very strong hurricane in the western Caribbean. This operational model consistency has the full support of both the GFS ensemble and European ensemble guidance. One thing I did notice is that the model guidance are forecasting that this disturbance may create its own environment building a shield of sorts against unfavorable wind shear by the time it reaches the eastern Atlantic next weekend. I’m not sure if I quite buy this at this point, but it is something to keep in mind and is a reason why all of the models are forecasting this system to become such a strong storm by the time it reaches the western and northwestern Caribbean late next weekend and early the following week (October 2nd-3rd).

The third item to mention is that right now the Madden Julian Oscillation is in an unfavorable phase for development across the Atlantic Basin. This is why Julia, Karl and Lisa have all struggled to develop and strengthen. This is forecast to change as soon as from next weekend through the week of October 3rd to October 7th as the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to switch into a favorable mode across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic. This favorable phase lends support to the idea of a Caribbean tropical cyclone next weekend and beyond.


So, this means I am cautiously concerned with the potential for a tropical storm or a hurricane in the Caribbean by late next weekend and early the following week. I use the word cautiously concerned because I do see indications that do support the idea of a hurricane in the central, western and northwestern Caribbean. On the other hand, I do see reasons why we could see little or no development of any system that moves into the Caribbean next weekend. So, at this point I think for now everyone in the Caribbean should just keep a close eye on this tropical disturbance and look through your hurricane preparedness kits over the next few days to make sure you have everything stocked up. Don’t buy into any one model forecast as all of them will change over the next several days, but be aware that there is the possibility of a strengthening tropical storm or even a hurricane in the Caribbean by the end of next week through next weekend and beyond.

Bottom line is that we are going to be monitoring this tropical disturbance very closely in the coming days to see how develops as it pushes westward. Those of you in the Lesser Antilles and Barbados should especially keep a close eye on this system as it looks increasingly more likely that it may bring tropical storm conditions to you from late Tuesday night through Wednesday, Wednesday night and part of Thursday.

Crown Weather

Jeff Masters:

Trouble in the Caribbean Next Week?
A  tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Africa and about 350 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday morning was poorly organized, with only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin. This wave is currently too close to the equator (near 8°N) to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire enough spin of its own to develop into a tropical depression, and is not likely to develop through this weekend as it heads rapidly west at 20 - 25 mph. However, the tropical wave may move far enough from the equator to be able to develop by early next week, when it reaches a point about halfway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. There was increased model support for development of this tropical wave in the Friday morning runs of the models compared to their Thursday morning runs. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Friday runs that this tropical wave would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Monday and Thursday next week. About 60% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Friday GFS ensemble showed development, and about 30% of the 50 members of the European model ensemble did so. Troublingly, a considerable number of the ensemble model runs showed this storm becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Working against development, at least in the next five days, will be the fast forward speed of the system—tropical waves moving at 20 mph or faster usually have trouble getting organized. However, the storm does not have as much dry air to contend with compared to other storms we have seen this year, and it would not be a surprise to see this system be close to tropical depression or tropical storm status when it begins moving into the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday night.  In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively.





Figure 3. Forecasts out to ten days from the 00Z Friday European model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late next week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by ten days into the future.


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#517838 - 09/26/16 06:27 PM Re: Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic to Watch [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

97L Growing More Organized as it Approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands

Jeff Masters:

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands late Monday morning (Invest 97L) was headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and has the potential to become a dangerous storm in the Caribbean later this week. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 97L was growing considerably more organized, with more curvature to the cloud pattern, an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, low-level spiral bands that were getting more defined, and upper-level outflow that was becoming better established to 97L’s north. The storm’s organization was being aided by low wind shear of 5 knots, a very moist atmosphere (relative humidities at mid-levels of the atmosphere near 70%) and warm ocean waters of 30°C (86°F). Significant negatives for development included the storm’s forward speed of 15 - 20 mph, which was too fast for the storm to get itself properly aligned in the vertical, plus 97L’s nearness to the equator. The system was centered near 9.5°N, which was too far south to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire much spin of its own.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, reaching a latitude of about 12°N by Tuesday afternoon. This is far enough away from the equator to give 97L an extra boost of spin that may allow it to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. With the SHIPS model predicting wind shear remaining low, mid-level moisture staying high at 65 - 70%, SSTs remaining a very warm 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F), and 97L slowing its forward speed to about 10 - 15 mph, conditions will be ripe on Tuesday for 97L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. By Tuesday night, the outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely that 97L will have time to intensify into a hurricane by then, though a strong tropical storm with 60 - 70 mph winds is quite possible.

Invest 97L may pass very close to the coast of South America on Thursday and Friday, which would interfere with development. In addition, the southeastern Caribbean is a well-known tropical cyclone graveyard, where scores of healthy-looking storms have died or suffered severe degradation. This is often due to the fact that the southeastern Caribbean is a place where the surface trade winds tend to accelerate, due to the geography and meteorology of the area. A region of accelerating flow at the surface means that air must come from above to replace the air that is being sucked away at the surface. Sinking air from above warms and dries as it descends, creating high pressure and conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclones. In addition, tropical cyclones passing near the coast of South America often suck in dry continental air from the land areas to the south. The last hurricane to pass through the southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane Tomas of 2010, degraded from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical depression due to high wind shear and dry air as it moved across the region. Recent runs of the SHIPS model have been predicting that 97L will increase its forward speed to 25 mph on Thursday in response to the acceleration of the trade winds over the southeastern Caribbean, and this will likely interfere with development. The model is also indicating that 97L will draw in dry air from northern South America, further slowing intensification. Once 97L manages to separate itself from the coast of South America early next week, more significant intensification can occur.

Model support for development of 97L continues to remain high. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Monday runs that 97L would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Tuesday and Thursday. About 80% of the 20 forecasts from the members of the 00Z Monday GFS ensemble showed development into a tropical storm, with 50% predicting a hurricane. The European model ensemble was less aggressive developing the storm, probably because of a predicted track too close to the coast of South America—about 60% of its 50 ensemble members predicted a tropical storm in the Caribbean, with 30% predicting a hurricane. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 90%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into the storm on Tuesday afternoon. The next name on the Atlantic list of storm names is Matthew.





Figure 2. Forecasts from the 00Z Monday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late in the week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by ten days into the future. The European model showed a more westerly track for 97L, with a long-range threat to the Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS model predicted more of a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Long-range forecast for 97L
The steering currents for 97L will be complex over the coming ten days, and it is very difficult at this point to narrow down where the storm will be 5 - 10 days into the future. A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and settle over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L more to the northwest by the weekend, according to a majority of the Monday morning runs of the models. In this scenario, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, or eastern Cuba would be at risk from a direct strike by 97L on Sunday or Monday. Early next week, this upper level low is expected to lift out to the northeast as a strong trough of low pressure passes its north and captures it. This trough may be strong enough to pull 97L to the northeast with it, if the storm is far enough to the north. Otherwise, 97L will likely continue on a west-northwesterly path. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), 97L could eventually make landfall anywhere from Nicaragua to Newfoundland, Canada, so we really can’t narrow things down much at this point. If 97L ends up consolidating its center at a latitude significantly different from what these models are expecting, or on a day different from what is expected, the forecast tracks may change dramatically. Making an accurate long-range track forecast from a tropical wave in the process of transitioning into a tropical depression is notoriously difficult.


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#517871 - 09/27/16 06:19 PM Re: Tropical Storm Matthew In The Atlantic to Watch [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Jeff Masters:

97L Close to Tropical Depression Status

A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands late on Tuesday morning (Invest 97L) was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later on Tuesday. Satellite loops late Tuesday morning showed 97L did not yet have a well-defined surface circulation, though it appeared close to establishing one. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was modest at best, but upper-level outflow was very well established to 97L’s north. Aiding development was moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and warm ocean waters of 29.5°C (85°F). Significant negatives for development included the storm’s forward speed of 15 - 20 mph, which was too fast for the storm to get itself properly aligned in the vertical, plus dry air. The 8 am EDT Tuesday SHIPS model output analyzed 55% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere over 97L, which is lower than optimal for tropical cyclone formation. The 12Z (8 am EDT) Tuesday balloon sounding from Trinidad, 500 miles to the west of 97L, showed several bands of dry air with humidities below 40% located between 618 mb and 300 mb in altitude. Water vapor satellite loops showed 97L was butting into a region of dry air that lay just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Lack of spin from being too close to the equator was less of a problem for 97L than before, as the system had worked its way northwards to a latitude of 12°N. This is far enough from the equator for the storm to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire more spin of its own. The outermost spiral rainband of 97L was bringing rain showers to Barbados late Tuesday morning, as seen on Barbados radar.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Model support for development of 97L over the next day or so remains high. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Tuesday runs that 97L would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Tuesday and Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 90%. The Hurricane Hunters are in the air, and will investigate the storm on Tuesday afternoon. The next name on the Atlantic list of storm names is Matthew.

Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, then slow down to a forward speed of 5 - 10 mph for the remainder of the week. The outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles Tuesday night, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely that 97L will have time to intensify into a hurricane by then, though a strong tropical storm with 55 - 65 mph winds is quite possible. The strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4 - 8” can be expected over the islands just north of where the center of 97L is, including the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe. The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles--Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao--on Thursday night and Friday morning. These islands will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and may escape receiving tropical storm winds. However, heavy rains of 2 - 4” can be expected, as predicted by the 06Z (2 am EDT) Tuesday run of the HWRF model.

As 97L passes through the southeastern Caribbean, it will be in an environment somewhat unfavorable for development. The southeast Caribbean is a well-known tropical cyclone graveyard, where scores of healthy-looking storms have died or suffered severe degradation. This is often due to the fact that the southeastern Caribbean is a place where the surface trade winds tend to accelerate, due to the geography and meteorology of the area. A region of accelerating flow at the surface means that air must come from above to replace the air that is being sucked away at the surface. Sinking air from above warms and dries as it descends, creating high pressure and conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclones. In addition, tropical cyclones passing near the coast of South America often suck in dry continental air from the land areas to the south. The last hurricane to pass through the southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane Tomas of 2010, degraded from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical depression due to high wind shear and dry air as it moved across the region. Recent runs of the SHIPS model are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots and some dry air for Thursday and Friday along 97L’s path, and these conditions may interfere with development. In addition, the Tuesday morning 00Z runs of the European and UKMET models predicted that 97L would move slightly south of due west and pass very close to the coast of South America on Friday, which would also inhibit development.





Figure 2. Forecasts from the 00Z Tuesday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late in the week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by ten days into the future. The European model showed a more westerly track for 97L, with a long-range threat to the Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS model predicted more of a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Long range forecast for 97L
A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and settle over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L sharply to the north by the weekend, according to a majority of the Tuesday morning runs of the models. While the sharp right-hand turn in Figure 2 might look implausible, there are a number of cases of storms taking such a northward bend, especially in October, with the classic example being Hurricane Hazel (1954). This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has huge implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, which would put the Dominican Republic and Haiti in the cross hairs for a direct hit early next week, with a long-range threat to the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast later in the week. The European model and UKMET model forecast a later turn, resulting in Jamaica and Cuba being more at risk of a direct strike early next week, and Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast being at risk later in the week. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), the uncertainties are high. 97L is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north towards the islands, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands.


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#517893 - 09/28/16 10:33 PM Re: Tropical Storm Matthew In The Atlantic to Watch [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

Jeff Masters:

Matthew Rolls Through Lesser Antilles

Not even classified as a tropical depression early Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Matthew rolled through the Lesser Antilles as a mid-strength tropical storm on Tuesday afternoon. As of 5 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center placed Matthew about 65 miles west of St. Lucia, moving west at 18 mph with top sustained winds of 60 mph. Some observers may have done double takes when they saw Matthew debut as a 60-mph tropical storm in its very first advisory (11 am EDT Tuesday). NHC typically relies on Hurricane Hunter data before upgrading a system like Matthew, and we had a gap between flights on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Hurricane hunter flights are now scheduled every 12 hours for the next couple of days. Moreover, in their first pass through Matthew on Wednesday morning, the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed circulation, so the storm had 60-mph winds without being a tropical storm with a closed circulation. The last “instant tropical storm” of this magnitude was Tropical Storm Karen in 2013, whose first advisory was also as a 60-mph tropical storm.

Satellite imagery of Matthew on revealed a very healthy tropical storm, with excellent outflow ventilating the upper reaches of the storm and an expanding area of intense thunderstorms at its core.


Figure 1. Satellite image for Tropical Storm Matthew as of 5:36 pm EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2016.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from weather.com for the Lesser Antilles as of 4:49 pm EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2016.

Heavy rains and gusty squalls were sweeping across the Lesser Antilles as Matthew moved through on Wednesday afternoon, with some of the strongest activity east of Matthew’s center still to reach the islands. Winds at Dominica’s Melville Hall Airport gusted to 53 mph at 10 am EST, and Martinique’s Le Lamentin Airport reported a sustained wind of 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph at 5:00 pm EDT.

Wunderground member java162 posted this report at 1834Z (2:34 pm EDT): “It has been pretty blustery here in Dominica. So far we have had just over 2 in of rain. The wind is the real issue. Constant gusts between 60 and 90 kph [37 - 56 mph]. What I have been hearing is of a number of trees down throughout the island and quite a few areas are without electricity.”

Outlook for Matthew through the weekend
Long before it poses any possible threat to the United States, Matthew could mean big trouble for parts of the Greater Antilles. Computer models agree that Matthew will continue on a general westerly track for the next couple of days. Because Matthew’s center is a bit further north than earlier expected, the storm may be able to avoid too much interaction with the land mass of South America. By this weekend, a large upper-level low over the Mid-Atlantic (see below) should provide a pathway for Matthew to take a sharp right turn. While quite unusual, such a sharp turn is hardly unprecedented, as we noted yesterday. Tropical expert Brian McNoldy (University of Miami/RSMAS) delves into one powerful analog--Hurricane Hazel (1954)--in a very timely post today at Capital Weather Gang.

Should Matthew take its expected turn to the north, it would have a very hard time avoiding landfall somewhere between Cuba and the Dominican Republic. It’s too soon to pin down the longitude of that northward turn, but models have been gradually converging on a path that could bring Matthew somewhere near the Windward Passage between eastern Cuba and Haiti, perhaps as soon as Sunday. Residents of eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should keep especially close tabs on Matthew over the next several days.


Figure 3. NHC track and intensity forecast for Matthew as of 5:00 pm EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2016.

How quickly will Matthew strengthen?
Adding to the concern for the Caribbean is the potential for Matthew to strengthen quickly. Through Friday, the relative humidity in the lowest few miles of the atmosphere will be only modestly supportive of development (50-60 percent), but wind shear will be very low (5 - 10 knots) and sea-surface temperatures quite high (around 29°C or 84°F). In addition, Matthew will be entering a region with high oceanic heat content, between 50 and 100 kilojoules per square centimeter (see Figure 4 below). Even higher values of oceanic heat content lie further downstream, south of Cuba and Haiti. CSU/CIRA/RAMMB notes: “For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity > 50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., > 28.5°C]) and with intensities less than 80 knots, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change.”


Figure 4. Tropical cyclone heat potential, an index of the amount of heat in the upper ocean, for the Caribbean as of September 27, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

The 12Z and 18Z Wednesday runs of the SHIPS statistical model give unusually high odds for rapid intensification of Matthew over the next 24 to 48 hours. Based on the starting-point conditions (50 knots, or 60 mph, at 2:00 pm EDT Wednesday), the 18Z SHIPS run projects the following likelihoods of a rapid increase in Matthew’s peak winds:

70% odds of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours
50% odds of a 35-knot increase in 24 hours
42% odds of a 45-knot increase in 36 hours
44% odds of a 55-knot increase in 48 hours

It should be stressed that these numbers are based on a set of statistical predictors that compare the environmental conditions now present with Matthew to those in play during past tropical storms and hurricanes. (See this PowerPoint for more details on the index.) This index has shown some modest skill in predicting rapid strengthening. Other tools used by SHIPS give Matthew considerably lower odds of rapid intensification. Forecasters at NHC also take into account satellite imagery and the results of dynamical models (such as the GFS, Euro, and UKMET) before issuing official predictions. The NHC forecast issued at 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday makes Matthew a hurricane by Thursday night and a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. We cannot say with any confidence that Matthew will undergo rapid intensification beyond the official forecast, but the possibility is there.

Long-term outlook for Matthew
There remains huge uncertainty in Matthew’s fate beyond the weekend. A large minority of the members of the European ensemble model run from 12Z Wednesday take Matthew back westward toward the Gulf of Mexico as it is approaching Cuba and Haiti, while members of the 12Z Wednesday GFS ensemble are in unanimous agreement that Matthew will continue northward. We cannot yet discount the possibilities in the Euro ensemble, but assuming that Matthew moves into The Bahamas by early next week--as indicated by the 12Z Wednesday operational runs of the GFS, European, and UKMET models--Matthew’s subsequent path will hinge on the state of the upper-level low parking over the Mid-Atlantic into the weekend, as well as another upper-level trough that will be plowing eastward across the United States next week. The upper-level flow across North America and the North Atlantic will include several blocking features late this week into early next week, and these are notoriously difficult to predict. The most we can say at this point is that Matthew has the potential to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf or Atlantic U.S. coasts by later next week.


Figure 5. Forecasts from the 12Z Wednesday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (left) show a wide variety of potential tracks for Tropical Storm Matthew after it reaches the western Caribbean, while the members of the 18Z GFS model ensemble (right) are much more tightly clustered.


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#517928 - 10/01/16 10:08 AM Re: Tropical Storm Matthew In The Atlantic to Watch [Re: Marty]
Marty Offline

NEMO Sends Out Advance Notice For Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew is out there in the Caribbean gaining strength at a frightening rate.

And that's why NEMO has issued what it calls an early advance notice. Now, to be clear, the storm is not forecast to come our way, but NEMO says it is monitoring the Category 4 Hurricane which is presently more than 1, 000 miles from Belize.

NEMO stresses that Matthew is expected to make a turn to the North over the weekend. And even though the superstorm poses no threat to Belize and the extreme western Caribbean, persons living on the cayes, in flood prone areas, fisher folks, and farmers are advised to monitor Hurricane Matthew in the event that the northward turn does not materialize over the weekend. NEMO says that national and district committees will be notified to monitor and prepare for any developments associated with the storm.


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