AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Hurricane Forecasters Predict Above Average Season

Hurricane Forecasters Predict Above Average Season

The hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1st but the preliminary forecast is already out and the prediction is dire. According to the experts hurricanes William Gray and Phil Klotz it will be an above average year. They are predicting 8 hurricanes - four of which will be major hurricanes. What does this mean for Belize? That is what we asked Chief Meteorologist Dennis Gonguez.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist
"We are looking are at fifteen named storms, eight of which will become hurricanes and four of which will be intense hurricanes which would be category three, four, or five. The normal average is about 9 named storms with 6 of them becoming hurricanes and two of those intense hurricanes. So it looks like an above average season this year."

Keith Swift,
"So what does this mean for Belize?"

Dennis Gonguez,
"Well we escaped last year with a very quiet season and now all the factors that influenced last year's quiet season are being eroded and so we are looking for an above average season so it is quite likely we will be heading to shelters a couple times this year."

Keith Swift,
"What are those factors?"

Dennis Gonguez,
"Well El Nino is the major factor that caused that quiet season last year and it even resulted in droughts in the parts of the Eastern Caribbean however we are heading towards a more neutral condition in the Eastern Pacific Ocean so that could lead to a more active hurricane season this year."

Keith Swift,
"So what is your advice to Belizeans?"

Dennis Gonguez,
"Start thinking about preparations, what you will do when there is threat. We have to have all our plans, your personal plan, your family plan, you need to start thinking about your plans now."

Last year's hurricane season was below average. There were only 9 named storms and three hurricanes. Belize's biggest threat was from Ida. The hurricane season starts June 1st and ends on November 30th.

http://www.7newsbelize.com/sstory.php?nid=16638

Hope we don't reach the Greek alphabet again!!

Its been the K's and D's & M's although.

I wish I'd saved last year's early prediction. I think they said the same thing.

I agree Diane, don't they always say this stuff? Like every year we say, last year it wasn't as hot-cold-rainy-dry as this year. Although I do not want to ignore the warnings, I am over being upset by them.

I think it just shows that they/we still don't know enough about weather --- research money for such research is short, and being cut even further. Last year Dr. Jeff Masters of WeatherUnderground stressed participation in a petition to US Congress NOT to cut funding for such research. Not sure what happened with that.

I think the answer is blowing in the wind.

inpub, listening to Dylan this morning?