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SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
Hurricane Beta moves into Nicaragua and Honduras and will influence the weather particularly over Southern Belize.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy skies and occasional showers. Winds will blow from the North to Northeast at 15 to 25 kts... The sea state will be moderate to rough...
MARINE INTERESTS AND OPERATORS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BECAUSE OF ROUGH SEAS WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
The outlook is for cloudy skies and occasional showers on Monday.
Tropical Weather Development:
HURRICANE BETA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 83.2W AT 30/0600 UTC (MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME) OR ABOUT 105 NM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 50 NM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MOVING WSW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEED WAS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
BETA HAS BECOME A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11.5N-15N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TO 84.5W. OUTER RAINBANDS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF LINE 17N80W 17N82W INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO OVER W NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W.
BETA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETA CONTINUES INLAND. THIS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A STORM SURGE ON THE NICARAGUA COAST WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...MUDSLIDES...AND HIGH WINDS WELL INLAND. Southwest Caribbean:
HURRICANE BETA IS ALONG THE COAST NICARAGUA.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR BETA IS PROVIDING GENEROUS OUTFLOW COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN TO 73W.
Northwest Caribbean:
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W. A POLAR HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INTO NW CARIBBEAN.
Central Caribbean:
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO HURRICANE BETA WITH THE LOCATION BASED MORE ON EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N TO OVER NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-75W.
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 17N FROM 74W-84W INCLUDING CUBA AND JAMAICA.
Eastern Caribbean:
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 14N67W. THE UPPER LOS IS DRAWING DRY AIR S TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE BETA.
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October 31, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
The Core of Tropical Depression Beta moves from Nicaragua into Honduras and will influence the weather particularly over Southern Belize.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Overcast skies, intermittent rain and occasional showers. Winds will blow from the Northwest to Northeast at 15 to 25 kts... The sea state will be moderate to rough...
MARINE INTERESTS AND OPERATORS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION BECAUSE OF ROUGH SEAS WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
The outlook is for cloudy skies and occasional showers on Tuesday.
Tropical Weather Development:
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FILTERED NORTH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 19N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 25N E OF 88W. Central America:
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. CONVECTION REMAINS LIGHT WITH ONLY AN SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 81W-82W.
Northwest Caribbean:
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BETA CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NWD BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
THERE IS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 80W-89W. FURTHER EAST A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA S TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 19N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 77W-81W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 19N80W.
THIS SLOW MOVING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
Central Caribbean:
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 20N ARE BLOWING EASTERLY AT 20 KT INTO CARIB EAST OF 75W.
Eastern Caribbean:
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 21N MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 56W-62W. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS THE WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 14N69W...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
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November 1, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
Tropical moisture and unsettled conditions will continue to influence the weather over Belize and the Yucatan and extreme Northwest Caribbean.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy to overcast skies and occasional showers. Winds will blow from the Northwest to Northeast at 10 to 20 kts... The sea state will be choppy to moderate.
The outlook is for cloudy skies and occasional showers on Wednesday.
Tropical Weather Development:
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W DOMINATE THE SITUATION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. Central America:
CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURING ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 81W.
Northwest Caribbean:
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA COUPLED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH.
BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN...
DIFFLUENCE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NE TO ACROSS W CUBA.
Central Caribbean:
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 20N ARE BLOWING EASTERLY AT 20 KT INTO CARIB EAST OF 75W.
IN THE LOWER LATITUDES THE TRADES W OF 75W WILL BE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL AND NEAR NORMAL EAST OF 75W.
N OF THE UPPER LOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N80.5W 12N78.5W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W.
Eastern Caribbean:
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE ABC ISLANDS S TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 68W-71W. THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. BY WED...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AS THE ITCZ AXIS PULLS N ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN IS CAUSED BY THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
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SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
A cold front extending from Central Cuba into the Gulf of Honduras will produce cool and fair weather over Belize and Yucatan.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Partly cloudy skies with clear breaks. Winds will blow from the Northwest to North at 10 to 20 kts. The sea state will be choppy.
The outlook is for fair weather with mild temperatures on Thursday.
Tropical Weather Development:
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N74W CONTINUE DOMINATE THE SITUATION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. Northwest Caribbean & Central America:
A COLD FRONT FROM 28N83W TO NW YUCATAN MOVED INTO SW N ATLC AND WILL EXTEND FROM 31N70W THRU CENTRAL CUBA LATE TODAY.
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS CUBA.
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES AND THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 77W-87W.
Central Caribbean:
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N74W. SCATTERED MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA 72W-76W.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W/74W IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W MOVES W OF AREA THU. LOW PRESSURES (1010 MB) OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE WIND W OF 80W AND EASTERLIES E OF 80W. Eastern Caribbean:
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-75W.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
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SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
A stationary cold front extending from Central Cuba into the Gulf of Honduras will prolong the cool and fair weather over Belize and Yucatan.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Partly cloudy skies with clear breaks. Winds will blow from the Northwest to North at 10 to 20 kts. Isolated showers will occur mainly over the sea and late afternoon. The sea state will be choppy.
The outlook is for fair weather with mild temperatures on Friday.
Northwest Caribbean & Central America:
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 83W S OF 16N.IT IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THUS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT...S OF 17N...W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E U.S. INTO THE W ATLC FORCING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA SW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THEN S TO HONDURAS. THIS FRONT IS KEEPING THE MOISTURE S OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 83W TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT AND S OF 19N.
IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST TO MONDAY.
Central Caribbean:
AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N74W-12N78W. Eastern Caribbean:
THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 66W/67W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. EXCELLENT WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62.5W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. AN UPPER HIGH NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS IS DRYING OUT THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CLEARING SKIES E OF 67W. CLEARING AND LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ELY TRADES OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE S OF 18N IN THE CARIB.
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GENERAL SITUATION: OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK AND PRODUCE CLOUDY AND RAINY WEATHER! 24 HR FORECAST: CLOUDY SKIES; PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING THEN NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT! WINDS:
WESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10KTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY LATER AT 10 TO 20KTS. SEA STATE: LIGHT CHOP TO CHOPPY; OUTLOOK: THROUGH TO SUNDAY MORNING: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.
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SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
A frontal trough extending from Central Cuba into the Gulf of Honduras is maintaining cool temperatures and overcast conditions with rain over Belize and Yucatan.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy to overcast skies with mild temperatures. Winds will be light and variable and occasionally Northerly at less than 10 kts. Periods of light rain and Isolated showers will occur during the morning and late afternoon. The sea state will be slight.
The outlook is for cloudy and cool weather with isolated showers.
Northwest Caribbean & Central America:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 15N WITH THE 81W/82W TROPICAL WAVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 15N WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N87W NEAR COZUMEL TO 18N88W TO 16N88W IN WESTERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO JUST EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ONE CELL OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
Central Caribbean:
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74WAND 77W IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS FOUND FROM 11N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
Eastern Caribbean:
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
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