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Posted By: Marty Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/23/13 02:17 PM

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 10:14 am

A frontal boundary is pushing into the central and southern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to enter the northern Caribbean by Friday where it is expected to stall out over the weekend. Additionally, an area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche this morning. Environmental conditions aren't exactly favorable for development and I don't think we'll see much if any development from it. With that said, this area of disturbed weather will be monitored.

Now, that frontal system which is expected to stall over the northern Caribbean will need to be watched for possible tropical development next week. Some of the forecast guidance, including the GFS model, is now consistently forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone between October 28th and November 4th. There are large differences in the details of the exact location and strength of this forecast tropical cyclone depending on which forecast model you look at.

Now, the setup starting next week seems to suggest we have a fairly decent chance of seeing a tropical cyclone form in the Caribbean as there will be a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity with a significant trough of low pressure developing over the central and eastern United States by about October 31st. This will lead to rising air and thunderstorm development over the Caribbean next week into possibly the following week and this development could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone.

So, the forecast guidance is showing the start of this development to occur in about seven days from now (around October 30th) with the GFS model showing the development occurring south of Jamaica and a track into the northwestern Caribbean by early November. The Canadian model guidance has a completely different forecast in that it forecasts a tropical cyclone to develop near Bermuda around October 29th and a track northeastward from there. Now, it seems the European model guidance also forecasts a low pressure system near Bermuda on October 29th and a track northeastward into the open Atlantic. Finally, the FIM model guidance shows the development of a tropical cyclone over the central Caribbean around Monday with a track just south of Jamaica on Tuesday and a landfall in Central America next Wednesday.

I continue to think tropical cyclone development is quite possible somewhere in the Caribbean, most likely west of 70 West Longitude between October 28th and November 2nd. I agree with the ensemble guidance which is pointing to about a 30 to 40 percent chance for tropical development over the central and western Caribbean between October 28th and November 2nd. Anything that develops in the Caribbean will likely remain in the Caribbean and I see very little if any chance that this is pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico.





Posted By: Marty Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/25/13 10:18 AM

Forecast guidance are pointing to the western and southwestern Caribbean as being an area of significant concern beginning around October 30th and continuing up until about November 10th.

The GFS model guidance continues to be off and on regarding potential development starting in about 8 to 10 days from now in the western Caribbean. The European model guidance forecasts that a very broad area of low pressure will form over the central and western Caribbean around November 2nd and 3rd. The Canadian model guidance, as I already mentioned, shows a tropical cyclone in the western and southwestern Caribbean late next week into next weekend which makes landfall in Honduras on November 3rd. Finally, the FIM model guidance forecasts tropical cyclone development in the central Caribbean around November 3rd that develops into a full blown hurricane in the western Caribbean by November 5th. The FIM model guidance then forecasts this system to impact the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize as a hurricane on November 6th.

The latest ensemble guidance is forecasting that there is a 70 to 80 percent chance for a tropical cyclone to form in the southwestern Caribbean in 5 to 10 days from now (Between October 30th and November 3rd). My thoughts as of this morning are that the entire weather pattern next week into the following week is one that you usually see a tropical cyclone pop out of. The combination of this favorable pattern, low barometric pressures over the Caribbean and warm ocean water temperatures seems to suggest that I think there is a fairly good chance for tropical development in the central or western Caribbean and I would be very surprised if a tropical cyclone did not develop in the Caribbean between October 30th and November 10th. Anything that develops in the Caribbean will likely remain in the Caribbean and I see very little if any chance that this is pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Crown Weather this morning

Damn.
Damn
Posted By: elbert Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/25/13 01:34 PM
Double Damn
Posted By: debbief Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/25/13 01:47 PM
We're arriving Saturday for two weeks. I've been watching the weather report and trying not to worry, but when Diane, Katie, and Elbert starting "damning" I think we might be in for some serious weather! :-(
The word is not damn - it is sandbags! Let's keep an eye on this and be prepared folks.
We do not have special insight into the H word and Amanda is right, monitor and be prepared.
just when I pretty much used up my canned goods --- shesh

Posted By: ScubaLdy Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/25/13 04:38 PM
How is this cold front affect the development of a possible hurricane?
Posted By: SimonB Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/25/13 06:41 PM
It is part of the problem by causing unstable weather.
Posted By: Marty Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/25/13 09:59 PM
lotsa models, its not a done deal
News on this?
looks like we getting it now, WAT A LOT OF RAIN !!!!!!!!!!!
Originally Posted by Katie Valk
News on this?


Rob Lightbown of Crown weather usually posts cautionary predictions -- he backed off on danger for us yesterday and did not post at all today.
Would love to know what he is thinking and what the models are saying ....
Posted By: Marty Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/27/13 06:30 PM

Update On Possible Central/Western Caribbean Development In About One Week From Now

I'm still keeping tabs on a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone in either the central/western Caribbean in about a week or so from now.

The most recent forecasts from the various models seem to agree in that this disturbance gradually gets its act together once in the western half of the Caribbean in early November. The Canadian model guidance is the strongest of the guidance and shows a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean by November 5th. The GFS ensemble guidance (which is an average of all of the possible scenarios based on different factors) is different than the operational GFS model guidance. The GFS ensemble shows a tropical cyclone in the Yucatan Channel by November 8th while the operational GFS model guidance shows little. Finally, the NAVGEM model guidance has come on board and is forecasting a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean around November 3rd.

Satellite imagery does show that the disturbance in the central Atlantic is somewhat less organized than it was yesterday and environmental conditions over the Caribbean are not favorable for development right now. So, it is something that definitely requires vigilance and monitoring, however, it is not something that is threatening at this time.

Canadian Model Forecast For November 5th:


GFS Ensemble Model Guidance For November 8th:


NAVGEM Model Guidance For November 3rd:


Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

Posted By: Ernie B Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/28/13 01:48 AM
Well, there ya go !
Posted By: elbert Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/28/13 06:12 AM
Make me crazy, I need the stress.
Posted By: Marty Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/29/13 10:42 AM

Various forecast guidance continues to point to gradual tropical development somewhere in the Caribbean during the first and second week of November. It looks like to me that based on analysis of current conditions that this possible development may come from a tropical disturbance now located over the eastern Atlantic near about 30 to 35 West Longitude. Before I get into the various forecast guidance details, I want to point out that environmental conditions are forecast to begin becoming more favorable for development across the eastern Caribbean around Friday with the central and eastern Caribbean possibly being favorable for tropical development by this coming weekend.

The GFS model guidance shows a broad low pressure system forming over the central Caribbean by early next week that never really spins up into a tropical cyclone. The GFS ensemble guidance is different than its operational guidance counterpart in that it forecasts a broad low pressure system forming near Jamaica around November 7th which spins up into a tropical cyclone near the Cayman Islands on November 12th that starts to track towards the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba by November 13th.

The Canadian model guidance is considered suspect this morning and I'm not using it in my forecast for potential tropical development. It forecasts two tropical cyclones to form. The first one is forecast to develop right over the Virgin Islands on Friday that takes off to the northeast into the open Atlantic. The Canadian model guidance then forecasts a second tropical cyclone developing just south of Jamaica on November 5th that tracks right over the Cayman Islands by November 6th and towards the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba by November 7th.

The NAVGEM model guidance clearly hones in on the tropical disturbance now near 30-35 West Longitude as a definite candidate for tropical development. It forecasts this tropical disturbance to track near Barbados and the Windward Islands on Friday bringing squally weather to these islands. The NAVGEM model guidance then forecasts this tropical disturbance to develop into a broad low pressure system that looks to start to spin up into a tropical cyclone just south of Jamaica by about November 5th.

The European model guidance forecasts that low pressure will form just south of Jamaica around November 3rd that appears to originate from that tropical disturbance near 30-35 West Longitude. The European model guidance forecasts that this low pressure system will remain over the southwestern Caribbean through at least November 7th, but the European model never really shows it spinning up into a tropical cyclone.

The FIM model guidance, which has been very consistent in forecasting development, shows a broad low pressure system forming over the central or eastern Caribbean this coming weekend that eventually spins up into a tropical cyclone near the Mona Passage between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico around November 6th that gradually tracks towards and into the southeastern Bahamas by about November 9th and for it to stall over the southeastern Bahamas as a hurricane through at least November 11th.

So, here are my thoughts: During late October and the first half of November, the western Caribbean is normally the spot to look at for potential tropical cyclone development. Additionally, anything that does develop in the western Caribbean normally tracks northeastward across Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands.

I do think there is a pretty good chance that we will see a tropical cyclone develop somewhere over the Caribbean either next week or at the very latest the following week. The reason why I think that we will see tropical development is that the Madden Julian Oscillation is in a favorable upward motion phase. I do think that the tropical disturbance now near 30-35 West Longitude will be the system to watch closely as it heads into the Caribbean between Friday and Sunday with the most likely time for development between November 5th and November 12th. I do think that pretty much the entire Caribbean will be in play in regards to this potential development as guidance points to favorable environmental conditions spreading westward across the Caribbean this weekend into next week.

So, at this point I would frankly be surprised if nothing develops in the Caribbean during the first two weeks of November based on the forecast favorable environmental conditions and the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation. So, this is something that I will be monitoring closely, especially once we get into next week and the following week. Until then, tropical development is highly unlikely from today through at least Sunday across the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

Posted By: Marty Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 10/31/13 01:40 PM
Tropical Development Still Possible In The Central & Western Caribbean Sometime Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:04 am

Satellite imagery and analysis of surface and upper air data shows that conditions are unfavorable across the Gulf Of Mexico, Atlantic and Caribbean. An approaching cold front is expected to produce seas of 6 to 8 feet and south to southeast winds gusting to 35 mph across the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon into tonight. Also, a trough of low pressure will track across the eastern Caribbean and will produce winds of up to 30 mph today across the northeastern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are very unfavorable across the Caribbean and development is highly unlikely due to wind shear values of 30 to 50 knots across the entire Caribbean. It is "interesting" to note that the model forecast for environmental conditions may be erroneous as it is forecasting favorable conditions across the central and western Caribbean this morning and it is obvious to me that environmental conditions are highly unfavorable and goes against this model forecast.

Some of the forecast guidance members have backed off on Caribbean tropical development during the first two weeks of November while other forecast guidance members continue to insist that tropical development will happen next week. The GFS and GFS ensemble guidance no longer shows development in the Caribbean.

The Canadian model guidance forecasts that tropical cyclone development will be generated from an area of disturbed weather associated with a mid and upper level low pressure system currently located over northern Colombia in northern South America. The Canadian model guidance shows this system to strengthen into a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the western Caribbean just east of Honduras and Nicaragua by Monday night and Tuesday and for this system to turn back to the north-northeast and impact the Cayman Islands as a minimal hurricane around November 8th and then the Florida Keys and southwest Florida as a hurricane on November 9th.

The UKMET model guidance, even though it doesn't forecast tropical development, shows a upper air pattern that looks favorable for tropical development on Monday and Tuesday as it shows a strong surface high pressure system over New England and a upper level high pressure system over northern Florida. This combination will lead to lowering barometric pressures from the southeastern Bahamas through the central and western Caribbean. So, this setup will need to be monitored as we get into next week.

The European model guidance is similar to the Canadian model in that it forecasts a broad low pressure system to originate from an area of disturbed weather over northern South America. This low pressure system is forecast to track to a position just south of Jamaica by Thursday of next week and then into the northwestern Caribbean by next Saturday (November 9th).

The FIM model guidance, which had been very consistent, in forecasting tropical development now does not show any sort of tropical development in the Caribbean during the first two weeks of November.

Here are my thoughts as of this morning:
Even though environmental conditions are currently very unfavorable for any sort of tropical development. Conditions are forecast to become favorable for development this weekend into early next week first across the eastern Caribbean and then spreading westward across the central and western Caribbean by the middle part of next week. That area of disturbed weather over northern South America, which is associated with a trough of low pressure should lift northward into the central Caribbean this weekend and this disturbance could be the trigger that leads to possible tropical development next week over the central and western Caribbean. One item that leads me to not discount the Canadian model guidance, which shows a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean next week is the fact that a high pressure system over New England from Monday through Wednesday may lead to lowering barometric pressures over the Caribbean. These lowering pressures combined with the trigger of a trough of low pressure could lead to tropical development over the western Caribbean next week.

Sorry but I really hate this!

Exactly one year ago we had a short discussion in this forum (the Cayes) and I saw what Elber posted ".....I hardly believe short range forecasts, unless its falling on my head ....." and yes, we had many "important people" who posted about possible tropical storms and in very few cases it was really acurate.
The only thing we do with these kind of publications: we keep people back from coming to Belize and we harm our own businesses.

Yes, there's a 99% changes that there will be another tropical storm forming somewhere in the Atlantic area during the month of November but what does this really mean? Well it means that I can count one and one together and it'll always add to 2 but maybe I should rather shut my mouth because it does not give any useful information to not one person.

Once again: I hate this and would love people to "gain their own self-confidence" while posting true and important messages and no 50:50 or less options and make others crazy with these worthless information - sorry, but that';s how I feel!
Marty, I am ok with you posting in advance something which might affect us. I found the info helpful and work around it.
Posted By: klcman Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 11/01/13 04:17 PM
How can any information that potentially saves loss of life & property be useless?

What? You would rather wake up some morning to a TS or stronger storm, totally unprepared and advised?
Posted By: tacogirl Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 11/01/13 04:49 PM
Life is a long preparation for something that never happens.
William Butler Yeats

When it comes to storms I would rather it be a false alarm than not know and not have an opportunity to prepare.

With the size if the puddles we get in some areas even heavy rain is a good cause for preparation. People can get well stocked and not have to go out if they do not need to.
WeatherUnderground says .......


By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013 +28
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.
Originally Posted by klcman
How can any information that potentially saves loss of life & property be useless?

What? You would rather wake up some morning to a TS or stronger storm, totally unprepared and advised?

A possible hurricane can be excellently monitored and our systems work very well to prepare and evacuate (if necessary) and make our visitors feel safe and my personal opinion is that we should not always scare everyone.

I'm in Belmopan now and locals and tourists are scared. They published that a huge storm would arrive within 2 days and all of them want to watch the 10pm news - I'm not sure if that was necessary and I see how people love to challenge others' fears - ..... and don't like it.

I know that Marty does a great job and I appreciate everything he publishes - I criticize these "weather gurus" who (to me) do not seem very professional. They had announced very much above average hurricane seasons years ago when then we had very much below average seasons and I do not want to know how many possible guests had changed their minds and did not come to Belize because they were very much scared. Cheers
Posted By: elbert Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 11/02/13 10:30 AM
Originally Posted by Diane Campbell
WeatherUnderground says .......
By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013 +28
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.

This is a huge relief to hear. My largest worry by far is a major hurricane direct hit.
The weather folks are a business like any other , they need you to keep reading and keep coming back to their site. Some sensationalizing has creaped into the weather reporting in the last few years and I'm sure they have a COs saying 'We got to get those numbers up' just like the rest of the planet. Nothing is pure and innocent anymore unless its a memory.
Posted By: Marty Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 11/02/13 11:08 AM
i seldom put up things that are not for sure, but occasionally I do. I was uncertain on this threat a few days ago when this thread started,but I decided to go ahead and publish to err on the safe side. One other time this season I made the same choice. That time nothing came of it either.

If I had chosen to not publish, and a storm came, I would be seriously disappointed in my decision. VIce versa, its not as bad.

Also, I publish a daily Tropical Weather Outlook, with reports from several major storm prognosticators.

It has the most recent information I have.

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/392196.html
You do it right, Marty, and as Elbert says ".....a business like any other , they need you to keep reading and keep coming back to their site..." but I see how many people get scared and then I do not like these predictions anymore.

I was sitting in the middle of hurricanes not just once and know what to expect but I know how very much (since Katharina) people are horrified and I feel sorry for our tourism if some people do too much and make others change their plans and not come to Belize just because they have an idea!

Yes, we must protect, prepare and be ready to act and react and I know that that's what you always have in mind - thank you very much. :-)
Posted By: Marty Re: Possible Tropical Development Next Week - 11/02/13 01:02 PM
here's Jeff Masters' November Tropical Weather Prognostication

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/476199/Atlantic_November_2013_Hurrica.html#Post476199

I hear you Sunny Reef, on possible bad publicity from posts such as this. Its a balance one has to be careful of.... thanks for your note...
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