REPORT #478 March 2002

Produced by the Belize Development Trust

by Ray Auxillou

Got a few interesting statistics out of the budget debate so far, this morning after! This due to timely Channel 5 posting on the internet. Can't find anything from Love FM yet?

We have 9,509 civil servants on the government payroll. What does this tell us statistically? Quite a lot about balancing the budget.

Population in Belize has leveled off roughly at 240,000 people. There is a lot of emmigration and immigration, but the population growth figure from census reports has stayed the same. This from the last two census reports, ten years apart. Politics and economic policies are responsible for this.

We could say therefore, that 4% of the population of Belize the nation are employed by the government. Actually, this is a realistic figure based on working adults; but not from a set of total population statistics. I can't remember now, but I have seen four of these ten year census reports statistics come and go. Statistics at best give us a picture of what is happening in the country, based on trends, or averages. They are not accurate on a monthly basis.

What the government workers statistics should show; is a level between 4% and 8% of the adult work force of the country being employed by government. The work force is not the same as a population total statistic. It does not show that in Belize.

Here is why! I'm pretty good wth statistics and approximations. Sort of a natural gift I can do in my head, coupled with some slick tricks in slide rule math taught to me in my rural village Canadian High School many years ago.

In Belize and most countries that are undeveloped, over the past fifty years, the largest population segment have been children. It is no different today in Belize. I have noticed some statistical constants through the decades in Belize. In Belize, the family unit breaks down statistically to five persons. Or two adults and three children. This is a national average and may not show reality in some segments of the country. In one family unit statistics, one adult has a job that brings in cash. This is not true in family businesses, or single parents, or in portions of the population of towns in Belize. But statistically for an average as a nation it works out very well.

Given those statistical constants in Belize, we find therefore, that there are 48,000 adults in the nation of Belize, that could work and be productive economically. But in actuality the number is half of that, as in Belize one adult in the family unit is a homemaker.

This gives us a statistic for the nation of Belize of only 24,000 working adults. To produce whatever wealth the nation has!

Now we know that there are currently as of 2002, the exact number of civil servants in the country of Belize living off the government pay cheque. This number is 9,509 people according to the PUP budget debate in the legislature, reported by Channel 5. Or in statistical numbers, the percentage of people or portion of the available working adult population that are salaried government people. This percentage is 40%, or 9,509 people of a 24,000 working adult available population. There are six districts and the average of government workers for each district should be 1,584 civil servants. This probably is not in practice but is a statistical average requirement under current conditions, based on a national regional geographic distribution.

The number statistically of government workers for a country in our condition and level of production should actually be between 4% and 8% of the adult working force. Or a minimum of 380 people on the government payroll and a maximum of 760 government workers nationwide under the current administrative operative system.

Since the PUP are employing 9,509 people as government workers, then a reduction of the government work force should be between 7,589 minimum and a maximum of 8,549 persons taken OFF, THE GOVERNMENT PAYROLL under current government system operating modus operendi of the PUP.

The PUP in other words, in order to get back to fiscal balance, have to find another way of running the government. The current method the statistics show is untenable financially. Which is a lot of what our Development Issues Reports are about on the Belize Electronic Library. There are ways! There are even ways of doubling the distribution of government largesse to double the government paid population numbers, at less cost; if done differently as an administrative operating system. That the PUP have not and will not face this issue; is a political issue and about keeping control in the hands of a small clique in their party. It is not about good government. Thus they, the PUP increase and create poverty by political mismanagement for selfish personal and party purposes, rather than re-structure government and political responsibility management and thus enable the creation of national wealth. By empowering the only asset the nation has, the human resources.

Belize does not have any wealth like oil, or bauxite, or copper. The only resource is human resources. There are plenty of those, but the current system of government management which favors the political party does not allow the flowering of human resources.

My girls are reasonably active on Caye Caulker in local politics at the village level and my next visit home will be to also find an hour to chat with Mr. Barrow the leader of the UDP over some ideas I have for restructuring, since I suspect he will be the next Prime Minister in a legal and fair election. Most of these ideas, or variations thereof, are on the Belize Development Issues on the internet. I might even offer my services to the UDP if they get majority in the next election; if the climate is favorable from Mr. Barrow for a serious restructuring of government operations and fiscal management. You can have your cake and eat it too! You also can reduce the National Foreign Debt and empower people to produce more and give better more efficient government.

I notice that PUP Minister of Agriculture, Dan Silva of the Cayo District had thought of quitting his PUP party? But he says the alternative of the UDP is not worth considering. I think he basically wants a guaranteed government income? Be that as it may, he has announced his dissatisfaction like Jorge, with his party policies. But has decided to work for PUP party reform within the party is his public announcement. Jorge and Dan may now be on the same team, though I am not sure? There are still 24 elected members of the party in the Cabinet who do not see the necessity for PUP policy reform.

Ralph Fonseca the Minister of the Budget missed the budget debate. The excuse given was that he was in Florida visiting his sister in the hospital. His absence at the debate was sorely missed as the PUP architect of current PUP economic policy with the support of his 25 fellow elected members.

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