REPORT #581 January 2003

( excerpts from the Belize Culture debating Listserve )
by Ray Auxillou, taking the Devil's Advocate position.


You don't understand the role of Belize in the G 7 world plan, nor how to defend Belize against a different type of Colonialist Imperialism. Just because you have been brainwashed, or educated by a Jesuit system that does not teach reality, doesn't mean you shouldn't think. Musa cannot understand, nor Fonseca, but if you aspire to the highest office in the land, you are going to have to be a QUICK STUDY, if you are going to defend Belize against something that is not a military invasion by Guatemala over the border. There are other ways of enslaving countries.


"Some poor countries are told by the IMF and World Bank to pay around 20 to 25 percent of their export earnings towards debt repayment. Yet, "[n]o European country including Britain, France and Italy is repaying its loans at levels higher than four percent. Why then do they insist poor African countries pay what they refuse to pay and consider unsustainable? We are forced to make sad assumptions in the absence of a plausible answer" as Charlotte Bagorogoza points out."


To: Francis Gegg aspirant Prime Minister of Belize.

Myself, I dont have to study this stuff, because I learned it the most expensive way, by speculating on stocks that had too much debt, over 18 years. The effect on my wallet teaches like no other education. Some businesses can carry a 100% of debt, like Supermarkets. They carry inventory for 90 days and have 90 days to pay. In other words, the food they sell is on consignment. But most corporations, whether small, large, local or international run on a certain amount of debt they can carry.

Nations fall into a standard category my experiences show, and 20% is a comfortable and probably maximum load that they could carry in debt. For Belize that amount of sustainable fluctuating operating debt is around $44 million a year. That can be paid off, without compound interest. If you include compound interest instead of simple interest of bonds for instance, then the debt must be slashed by about 90%. To run the Belize national annual debt above 20%, or even at 20% is asking for trouble, which amount is $74.4 million. But if a large amount of this debt is compound interest, it must also be slashed hugely. Simple fixed interest of bonds though is the right way to go. No debt and fees should exceed 10% of simple interest for Belize. We don't have the production. Nor will your expressed belief in myriad Free Zones produce it. If they do produce anything, it is unlikely to effect national government revenues more than 8%. You got any statistics and theories to prove otherwise I would be interested in them? But your beliefs and saying so, doesn't make it so, no more than Fonseca and Musa saying Growth Economics based on debt makes it so either.

It is the responsibility of governments to act conservatively. Not gamble like the PUP did. You have to understand that a large part of the National Debt of Belize is based on Compound Interest. Perhaps you could increase government economic growth and revenues by 300%. A lauderable goal, that Musa and Fonseca just tried and failed at. But let us grant that you did that. Do the math Francis. I'm not an economist, I'm a mathematician that deals in trading probabilities. Cold numbers!

Not even if you tripled the government revenues and on this population level of human resources I doubt that can be done in any sort of fast turnover? Nor could such a tripling still pay off the current debt based on compound interest. Do the math! Don't take my word for it and PLEASE don't do what Fonseca and Musa did, which is carry out a policy based solely on generalize thinking backed by HOPE. All gambling addicts work on HOPE! So do losing traders in the financial markets. It is HOPE and beliefs that keep the financial markets fleecing investors.


No Rosy to your query!

Francis is monitoring the list, but he and I are debating his manifesto ideas OFF-LIST. I am culling some of the things I don't agree with and giving him my reasons. Since this also concerns Belizeans who monitor this list and is worthy of more debate and contrary, or other opinions, I post to the list, which Francis monitors. With the hope that others will contribute their thinking and conclusions. Doesn't matter if they disagree with me! The exchange of ideas is more important.

When it comes to Francis, I find his postulated HOPES and ideas on economics, similar to Fonseca and Musa. Based more on WISHFUL THINKING, than realistic numbers and statistics. I'm trying to debate him and change his philosphy to include some cold hard numbers. I was unable to do anything with Musa and Fonseca, they were bullheaded. Esquivel and crowd listened. They didn't do it perfect, but they did a better job than the PUP have done.

One of the stated campaign promises of Francis crowd is the promise that he can increase the GDP, or Growth Rate, or in more basic terms, the Government Annual Revenues by introducing multiple Free Trade Zones. Musa and Fonseca got elected with a similar promise and failed.

I'm arguing from the viewpoint that this is WISHFUL THINKING! That the limiting factor is Human Resources. We do not have them!

However, such an idea might have merit and I won't argue against trying it. But this gives me the opportunity now, to say, or try to explain, that if you do try it, you have to do it without any further foreign borrowing, or printing of Belizean money. FACT is; the resources are not there in the government coffers, or to pay for the equipment and imported fences and other construction materials that would be necessary to implement such a scheme. For a campaign election promise, it might work like Musa and Fonseca tried. But disaster will follow, as once you promise something that is not possible without further debt burden, you get pyschologically married to such an idea and you have to carry it out, in order to satisfy your constitutents, your promises and all important for your own self-ego. You get locked into a failing program even though you know it is failing and cannot cut your losses. At what point would Francis, if he was Prime Minister with the keys to the treasury and credit cards of Belize be able to cut his losses and acknowledge his program cannot work? Analogy:

I lost three friends once, in a deep dive in the 1960's doing what was then the deepest world records on scuba. Before the advent of mixed gases. They had been diving 500 ft in the Bahamas on bounce dives. Grabbing shells from different levels and because the shells were rare and exotic, making a living on selling the shells. Sea life is graduated by atmospheres of pressure, different ecological environmental niches. However, for a world record deep dive, they had to repeat a daily dive for business before photographers, newsreels and cameras and the spectator boats. The cable was not the right size. It was greasy and not cleaned, but they couldn't back down after a much publicized hoopla campaign for a World Record deep dive on scuba. They went and had trouble with the cable on their clips and grease on their hands from the new cable and all died, because of the peer pressure of their promises and spectators. They felt peer pressure to do what they would not have done under regular daily commercial business dives to 500 ft. One, the fourth one survived. He dove with me to the bottom of the Blue Hole on Scuba on the East side entrance.

What I am trying to point out to Francis, that a) his ideas are wishful thinking but worth trying if he can pay for it out of government revenues b) that there isn't enough money to do what he wants anyway, because compound interest is eating it up (GOB revenues) c) that if he marries or publicizes such a promise, he will feel ego pressure to fulfill the program even if it increases the national debt.

This is a ruinous and perilous business! His ideas are nice, might even work, though I don't think so, but worth a try if you can pay for it? But if he gets to be Prime Minister he will find compound interest and the G-7 new colonialism policies will not permit him to try such things in any short term, like three to five years. The current compound interest of the PUP will kill that. That is unless Francis GAMBLES like MUSA and FONSECA and the PUP did? But good government is conservative government. You re-invest what you earn and save and that is how you achieve growth economics.

Belize has no savings and is unlikely to have any in the immediate future. Francis is expounding, or touting his experience and idea for increasing GOB earnings. Through more Free Zone businesses. But you have to pay for it and he has no statistics. It is just that; a wild eyed opinion and idea. No different than what Fonseca and Musa and this PUP Cabinet promised. This resulted in $1.2 billion in debt and the average five year GOB revenues have not budged. They are still fluctuating around a $372 million mean average. The last forty years of this in Belize, has shown a low of $280 million to a high of $460 million thereabouts. Memory fails me the exact numbers?

In that time, the population has risen from 120,000 to about 240,000 people. So any rise has been due to more people. But in the last two year census, taken ten years apart, the population figures have basically stagnated. Meaning, population is not growing. Either Nicaraguans and Hondurans are not coming here anymore? Or more Belize City Creoles are fleeing as fast as they are breeding and maturing, to the USA. Whatever the reasons for stagnant population growth, the result of the numbers indicate a maxed out limit of human resources. Which in turn means not much change in the fluctuation of the mean average of the five years GOB earnings. Therefore since 63% or so of the GOB revenues are compromised for existing national debt, the balance left over for governing is not enough to carry out Francis's ideas. Unless he borrows more? But that is a bad idea, because compound interest is going to make the debt of our now total $1.8 billion ( add on the previous UDP $600 million left behind ) actually reach a needed $3.4 billion if we were able to find the money in the next five year term to pay off the debt. Which we cannot!

Compound Interest is the weapon of the G-7 and perhaps the G-29 countries to rule the world. Why use armies, planes and bombs?

Lend them money at compound interest? If Francis became Prime Minister, he would have no money to make Free Zones, which also have no statistical base to prove his declarations anyway as a business plan? It is just WISHFUL THINKING based on HOPE. A gambling addiction. Francis could give all the money the GOB would earn for the next five years, work for no salary and still we would not pay off our foreign debts. Next five years of total GOB revenue comes to $1,86 billion on average. But compound interest means we will owe $3.4 billion by the end of five years. ( rough figure ) You would pay the original debt if you used ALL GOB revenues over the next five years and had no government operating costs at $1.8 billion. But compound interest would make you still owing to lenders over $1.6 billion. You get nowhere in paying off the debt by using ALL THE EARNINGS of the Belize Government during Francis five year proposed term of office. So why not a BANKRUPTCY ACT? You have to break the invasion by the G-7 somehow. This is just a different type of Imperialistic war? NEW WEAPONS ARE NEEDED FOR DEFENSE, THE BDF CANNOT DEFEND BELIZE FROM THIS. A National Bankruptcy Act would be a legal weapon used already in businesses familiar to all, and replace artillery and rebellion.

The fact is, you can pay the calculated monthly payments on compound interest and owe more at the end of two years. Double in fact what you borrowed, in just two years time, using compound interest of 18%. This is a WEAPON of subjugation. How do you fight this new type of invasion and conquest of imperialism by compound interest? A NATIONAL BANKRUPTCY ACT would do it! But neither Francis because of his SHAME and peer pressure belief systems of that small town of Belize City would let him, nor will it let Musa or Fonseca do the right and sensible thing. Ergo: our debt will GROW faster than our economy!

A new generation of leaders need to arise, that understand that Belize is in a lower stratum of countries in the world who are being ruled through "debt peonage". It is Imperialism of a new kind that the ex-colonials do not understand yet. The old leaders like Francis and Musa think in terms of guns and soldiers. They cannot think in terms of loans, payment treaties and compound interest. But these latter have taken the place of planes, artillery and soldiers in the NEW WORLD ORDER.


Francis you need some upgrading on your comprehension of bankruptcy acts and how they work and what they work for, also the secret planning of G 7 countries and people of the Bildeburg Group. Might have that name wrong, I forget exactly?


The following is a quote from President Obasanjo of Nigeria, commenting on the debt Nigeria faces:

"All that we had borrowed up to 1985 or 1986 was around $5 billion and we have paid about $16 billion yet we are still being told that we owe about $28 billion. That $28 billion came about because of the injustice in the foreign creditors' interest rates.

If you ask me what is the worst thing in the world, I will say it is compound interest."

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