<img align=right height=202 width=230 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/2000-1.gif">Tropical Storm Keith is continuing to organize and strengthen, and now
moving toward the northwest at five miles an hour. With maximum
sustained winds of 50 miles an hour with higher gusts, he is now
located about 210 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, expected
to veer to a north-northwesterly course.


Keith could become a hurricane tomorrow, Saturday. That prediction
indicates more rapid development than its earlier "some time this
weekend" forecast. Central pressure remains fairly steady at 995
millibars, or 29.38 inches.
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<img align=right height=174 width=191 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/2000-1.jpg">

Personally, I'd guess a hurricane before lunch, and, if really
pressed, might bet on it not long after daybreak, And if anyone who
looked sober bet on one before sunup, I wouldn't take him up on it.


Satellite images also show the storm beginning to drag soggy Pacific
air over Nicaragua and Honduras and trigger heavy rains in those
countries.


If Keith holds anything like his predicted or even present course,
Belize is safe from a center strike. He's far enough north now that
he'd have to turn just about due west to smack us. Of course, northern
Belize, including Ambergris Caye, will be closer to the center track
than the rest of the country. But being in the southwest quadarant by
the time winds start to get really frisky is not so bad a prospect,
relieving us of high tides and battering waves, even the relatively
little ones that make it over the reef. They'll be outbound instead.

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/


Tropical Storm Joyce, looking a wee bit more organized, continues to
approach the Caribbean, but if she doesn't veer northward, she's
doomed. A continued due-west course puts her center aground in
Venezuela. We'll have to keep alert to see that her low pressure
center doesn't subsequently try to go back in business over the Cradle
of Mitch north of Panama, but her beeline across the Atlantic is
ending up falling just that vital bit short of a bullseye passage into
the Caribbean.


Hurricane Isaac is well off to flee the lizards, appearing, subject to
Weather Service confirmation, to already be turning east of north out
in the broad north Atlantic.


And the tropical wave that had emerged from Africa during the weak has
been eaten by a large winged sea serpent, seen emerging from a termite
nest and eyeing events in our hemisphere at http://www.weather.com/weather/sat/tropsat_720x486.html


John Lankford

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]