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At 6:00 PM Central Standard Belize Righteous Chronometer Temporal
Reckoning, relatively moderate if blustery weather continued on
Ambergris Caye, the human habitation apparently closest to Hurricane
Keith, unless it's Caye Caulker. Except during rainsqualls, people
continued to buy extras and stockups at the open stores, ride bicycles
and walk barefoot or shod, or operate golf carts or motor vehicles or
shod on the streets at the usual pace. Light to moderate plywood
battening of windows was audible during the afternoon. Utilities
continued to operate without interruption.


For those curious about Tropical Storm Joyce, she was barely a
tropical storm and not organized, with maximum sustained winds of
about 40 miles an hour, 225 miles east of Trinidad, moving westward at
16 miles an hour and expected to cross the Windward Islands tomorrow
(Sunday) morning.


Keith has continued meteorologically incorrect motion slightly north
of westward at, during the past three hours, about five miles an hour,
and is now 90 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico and Corozal, Belize. The
center should be on a latitude slightly northward of San Pedro Town,
Ambergris Caye, probably about 75 miles distant from us. Maximum
sustained winds have increased slightly to 105 miles an hour, and is
still expected by those who expect things of balky hurricanes to head
north-northwest some day. Central pressure had reduced from 28.64
inches of mercury to 28.53 inches at last reading.


Ambergris Caye is in a fairly good situation with respect to Keith,
who is getting more respect, albeit grudging, all the time. By
placing his center slightly north or even due east of us, he's made it
necessary for the winds we receive to cross a considerable amount of
land first, which slows them down and breaks them up a bit. The
northern portion of the Caye is broader, most habitation being on the
eastern shore and protected by a wider breadth of forested island, and
the southern portion, of course, is just that much farther from the
potential heaviest winds. Better news is that the position change of
the past three hours may indicate the beginning of a northwestward or
north-northwestward, meteorologicaly correct movement. Or, he could
waver again.


Conditions favor further strengthening, and the question of the moment
is how much more Keith can manage to intensify this close to land, and
how close to land he will come, how soon, and, for those of us near
his center, precisely where. As before, if he will come on ashore and
start weakening, we can take the hit without very much damage. South
of his center, wind forces will be counteracting tidal surge and wave
action. But if he dawdles offshore and strengthens, things become more
problematical. He is still far from a major hurricane, only a Category
2, but we'd like him to enter or leave before he becomes much
stronger. At this time, it appears he may be doing the former.

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/

John Lankford

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]