October 2, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

Weather conditions influenced by Tropical Depression
20 will continue to produce cloudy to overcast skies
and isolated showers as it slowly moves northwest over
the Yucatan Peninsula.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies and isolated showers and
thundershowers. Winds will vary from westerly through
south easterly 5 to 15 Kts.. Sea state will be light
chop.

The outlook is for continuing partly cloudy conditions
and isolated showers through Monday.



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

North Western Caribbean:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY CENTERED NEAR 19.5N
87.3W...OR 55 MILES SSW OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 02/0600
UTC MOVING WNW 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

TSTMS ARE INCREASING AROUND THE CENTER WITH A STRONG
BAND IN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
16.5N-22N BETWEEN 84.5W-89W.

Eastern Atlantic:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN CENTERED NEAR 15.3N
34.0W...OR 665 MILES W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT
02/0300 UTC MOVING N 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

North West Caribbean:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AND MOVE INLAND TODAY THEN WEAKEN BACK
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON IT
WILL STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THEN A
MINIMAL HURRICANE TUE EVENING AND MAKE LANDFALL IN
MEXICO WED.


T.D. TWENTY WILL BRING STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN WINDS DECREASE ON
MON AS THE IT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS GETTING BETTER-DEFINED
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF T.D. 20. NLY OR NE WINDS
ALOFT CONTROL THE REGION W OF 68W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 77W.


Central Caribbean:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE NEAR JAMAICA ALONG 77W
S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ON THE E SIDE
OF T.D. 20 WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IN BETWEEN A BOX FROM
JAMAICA TO S CUBA AND HAITI. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH NLY SHEAR ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORE RUGGED AREAS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. A FEW
TSTMS ARE ALSO NEAR S AMERICA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-78W.

Eastern Caribbean:

AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SW TO THE OFFSHORE VENEZUELAN ISLANDS AND
DEMARCATES THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO THE W FROM DRIER
WEATHER TO THE E.

EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW TO
THE N...MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

Gulf of Mexico:

MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF OF MEXICO COAST
LATE WED AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU.