SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

General low pressures lingering over the Northwest
Caribbean as a cold front approaches Yucatan and
Belize will sustain cloudy to overcast skies.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies with widely scattered showers
and thundershowers developing during the late evening
and early morning. Winds will be southerly to
southeasterly 5 to 15 Kts. then will shift to the
northwest with the approaching cold front early
Sunday. Sea state will be light chop to choppy.

The outlook is for continuing cloudy conditions and
showery outbreaks through late Saturday.




North West Caribbean:

AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH A HIGH
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ALSO
FROM THE HIGH OVER THE CAYMANS EXTENDS WSW ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS SCENARIO
IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN NW
OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE WEAK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SLY WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.

Central Caribbean:

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
N OF 14N FROM 68W-75W TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA.

A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS.

Eastern Caribbean:

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N
MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH STRONG N FLOW FROM
AN UPPER RIDGE. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 65W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE
BEING GENERATED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW. TROPICAL
WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA ALONG 44W WITH LOW PRES NEAR
11N44W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE SAT AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE BEFORE
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

Gulf of Mexico:

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF AND STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DECREASE LATE SAT AND SUN.

LOW PRES NEAR WESTERN CUBA IS FORECAST TO MOVE N AND
EVENTUALLY GET PICKED UP THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
AROUND NEW ORLEANS TO CORPUS CHRISTI. THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE TODAY WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS
BEHIND IT. THE WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SAT AS
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRES
NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SAT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS
SUN...REACHING FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA BY TUE.


Central Atlantic:

TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
44W WITH LOW PRES NEAR 11N44W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE SAT AND
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE BEFORE ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA.