November 18, 2005 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT / SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1005 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W
DRIFTING NW WITH A SURFACE EXTENDING NE TO THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHERE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN ARE ALSO MOVING NW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS
COMBINED ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85.5W TO
18N84W.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO SAT. EVEN IF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY
RAINS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THE GULF YESTERDAY IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NIGHT. IT NOW EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR
25.5N81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO OVER
S MEXICO.

THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER STORMY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EXPECT TO REMAIN IN THE AREA
AS A SECOND FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN.

TODAY'S FORECAST

Unstable conditions due to a broad low pressure area
and dissipating T.D. No.27 over Northwest Caribbean
and Belize will support cloudy and showery weather.
Colder air and gusty surface winds are also due to a
cold front mow over Northern Yucatan.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Cloudy/Overcast skies during today tonight. Winds will
be northerly to northeasterly at 10 to 20 kts with
gusts above 25 Kts. Occasional showers and periods of
light rain will develop during the forecast period.
The sea state will be light choppy to moderate and
occasionally rough.

** "GALE WARNING" - MARINE OPERATORS AND OTHER
INTERESTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING IN
OFFSHORE WATERS.**

The outlook is for continuing overcast and cool
weather on Saturday.




Northwest & Southwest Caribbean:

SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N81W INLAND OVER HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N87W.

EVEN IF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY
RAINS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON
SUN AS THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN MOVES OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF.

MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE AREA OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

Central Caribbean:

THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL ENJOY CLEARING
SKIES AS THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WILL WEAKEN NOT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.

Eastern Caribbean:

A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS FIRMLY ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N76W COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC AS WELL. THIS IS GIVING THE E HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 79W.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N FIRING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO 80W.