HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN OCT 1 2000

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KEITH DRIFTING TOWARD THE YUCATAN/BELIZE
BORDER...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOULD BE IN THE EYE SHORTLY...


A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES
...105 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

KEITH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH LATER TODAY. IF THE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES MUCH
LONGER...THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KEITH IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
HURRICANE TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF KEITH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...18.1 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH