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HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000

...DANGEROUS INNER CORE OF HURRICANE KEITH IS PARTIALLY ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND NORTHEASTERN BELIZE...EXTREME DAMAGE IS
LIKELY DUE TO STORM SURGE...STRONG WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
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A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
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KEITH HAS BEEN WOBBLING ERRATICALLY...BUT THE GENERAL MOTION IS A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 942
MB...27.82 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THERE HAS A BEEN A REPORT OF A COLLAPSED HOUSE WITH INJURIES IN
BELIZE CITY.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.1 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 942 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hurricane Keith Discussion Number 12
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 01, 2000

there has been no new reconnaissance data since the report of 942 mb at 0734z and a dropsonde-based Peak wind estimate of 115 kt. Although satellite Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus 127 kt...the raw objective numbers have fallen a bit as the cold cloud tops have eroded and the advisory intensity remains 115 kt. Another reconnaissance aircraft will be in the system around 18z.
Smoothing out the wobbles in the track gives 275/2 for an initial motion. Keith remains in a weak steering current...in a mid-tropospheric col between a weak ridge over the northwest Gulf and A Ridge in the western Atlantic. The global models suggest that The Eastern ridge will build westward as the low offshore The U.S. Southeast coast moves out. This is forecast to increase the southerly flow around Keith and produce a North-Northwest motion that would move Keith over the Yucatan and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast has been adjusted a little to the west of the previous one. Model guidance is not in good agreement and confidence in the track forecast is not high. Of concern are the GFDL and experimental fsu superensemble...which bring Keith very close to the Louisiana coast in 72 hours. However...the Short-term forecasts from recent GFDL runs suggest that this model does not currently have a good handle on the storm. The avn...on which the GFDL is based has the center of Keith avoiding the Yucatan entirely...but time is running out on this forecast as the western eyewall is onshore.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and max winds
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[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]