The upper-level low bringing high wind shear to 94L has weakened considerably in the past six hours, and is forecast to slide westward and continue to weaken over the next two days. Very low wind shear of 5 knots or less should be over the disturbance Sunday. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5°C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression by Sunday. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast.

jmasters