we are being told to expect 12 to 18 ft surge this time. katrina, while it hit as a 3, was a 5 in the gulf and started pushing a 5 sized wall of water, which does not down grade once it starts moving, even if the storm itself does down grade. so far there is no indication of that with gustav. it could still intensify but right now wind shear from the west is tearing it up and keeping it from building. we hope that continues.