During Dean last year the surge was predicted higher than it actually was here in Belize. I also noticed that the surge predictions have been downsized on Wunderground.com
compared to earlier, but better be prepared for the worst!
Agree on the wind shear, and would also like to add colder waters as a factor: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008243go.jpg
(unfortunately the last data from this site - others are less readable) On satellite images the eye is not visible anymore...
Keep your head down and your nose above sea-level Darrin!!!