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HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2000

...KEITH NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING BUT STILL A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...POUNDING THE COAST OF BELIZE AND EASTERN YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

KEITH IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
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HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6-8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

NOTE...IN ADDITION TO THE STORM SURGE FLOODING...RECENT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE BAY OF
CHETUMAL AND THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY. THIS IS
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY WATER CAN RAPIDLY
RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BAY OF
CHETUMAL SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS AT ALL
TIMES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DEADLY SITUATION SO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY
ACTION NOW TO SAVE YOUR LIFE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.
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HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...EASTERN MEXICO...BELIZE AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 20
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...17.7 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART