Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Thursday, June 10, 2010 555 am EDT/455 am CDT

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Development In The Western Caribbean Late This Weekend/Early Next Week??: A tropical wave tracked across the Lesser Antilles yesterday and brought rain and gusty winds to these islands. In fact, the island of Barbados had sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

As of this morning, strong shear across the eastern Atlantic has squashed convection and development is not expected for at least the next 2 to 3 days. After that, by late this weekend into early next week, this tropical wave will have to be watched closely once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development and the model guidance has been on and off regarding the development of a low pressure system forming in the southwest Caribbean and interacting with this tropical wave; this interaction may lead to tropical cyclone development by early next week. Right now, it is something that needs to be watched for closely and I will keep you all updated. It should be noted that if a tropical system does form in the southwestern Caribbean, it would likely track west-northwestward into central America and the chances of it getting into the Gulf of Mexico are extremely low.