Atached is an ENSO Update release yesterday by WMO. A weak La Nina phase of ENSO is evolving in the Pacific and is forecast to last through most of the current Hurricane Season, with possible return to neutral conditions towards the end of the year.... No El Nino is foreseen to evolve in the foreseeable
future....
Kindly note this Hurricane Mitch excerpt from the preliminary NEMO database...
General Information
13th named Storm, 1998 Season Hurricane Mitch Cat V / 155 mph winds. Max wind attained 180 mph. Devastated the Honduran island of Guanaja then move onshore over northern Honduras after 33 hours as a Cat V. Central pressure was down to
905 mb (26.73 in). Produced storm surge of around 44 feet, according to one model. October 26, 1998 No death in Belize. Over 11,000 death in Central America: about 6,500 in Honduras alone; 4,600 - 11,000 missing in Honduras.
Areas mostly impacted were: Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Mexico. Cost in damages was estimated at over US $5 Billion in Central America; US $10 Million in Belize. Research conducted over recent decades has shed
considerable light on the important role played by interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean in altering global weather and climate patterns. During El Niņo events, for example, sea
temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially higher than normal. In contrast, during La Niņa events, the sea surface temperatures in these regions become lower than normal. These
temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the globe and, once initiated, such events can last for 12 months or more. The strong El Niņo event of 1997-1998 was followed by a prolonged La Niņa phase that
extended from mid-1998 to early 2001. El Niņo/La Niņa events change the likelihood of particular climate patterns around the globe, but the outcomes of each event are never exactly the same. Furthermore, while there is generally a
relationship between the global impacts of an El Niņo/La Niņa event and its intensity, there is always potential for an event to generate serious impacts in some regions irrespective of its intensity.
Three significant tropical cyclones impacted Belize during this period, namely: Mitch in October 1998; Keith on October 1, 2000; and Iris on October 8, 2001.
RFrutos