Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 23, 2021

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

July 23, 2021

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

July 23, 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coasts of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development over the weekend and into early next week while the system drifts offshore of the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the broad Atlantic ridge and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support gale force winds along the coastal waters of Colombia through 1200 UTC, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft. The strongest winds are expected within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, mainly between Barranquilla and Santa Marta. Strong to near gale force winds will also impact most of the south-central Caribbean through this morning as well, before winds begin to gradually diminish during the next 24 hours. For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Heavy Rainfall in Southern Central America: High moisture levels, persistent strong trade wind flow, and favorable conditions aloft will together support heavy rainfall for much of southern Central America through early next week. The heaviest rain is expected over the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and southeast Nicaragua. These rains could cause significant flooding and mudslides in some areas. Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted along the Caribbean coast from SE Nicaragua through western Panama.

...Tropical Waves...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 54W, south of 19N, moving W near 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident along the ITCZ south of 12N between 40W and 53W. A broad area of Saharan Air accompanies this wave, extending from 12N to 24N from 60W to beyond 40W.

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 67W, south of 20N, moving W at near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident behind the wave across the SE Caribbean south of 12N, associated with the ITCZ.

A third tropical wave is analyzed along 80W, from 13N to 25N, moving at 10 to 15 kt. No significant cloudiness or convection is associated with this wave.

...The Caribbean Sea...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section for more details.

Fresh to strong trades prevail across most of the central Caribbean to 80W, including the Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras, with fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Seas are 7-11 ft in the central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere, except for 2-4 ft south of Cuba. Fresh to strong easterly trades are building in across the NE Caribbean behind the tropical wave along 67W, and will bring scattered afternoon convection to the area today.

High pressure centered across the central Atlantic extends W-SW to central Florida and is combining with low pressure over N Colombia to support fresh to strong E winds over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds north of Colombia will end early this morning. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean today. The ridge will weaken west of 75W this afternoon through early next week as a weak frontal system and low pressure move offshore of Georgia and Florida and meander through the weekend, weakening the pressure gradient across the basin.


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development


Small chance for development off the southeast US coast
Accuweather

July 23, 2021

A disturbance over southeast Georgia may have a low chance of developing some tropical characteristics this weekend off the coast of the southeastern United States or far eastern Gulf of Mexico. With warm water and relatively low wind shear, conditions may just be conducive enough for some modest tropical development right near the coast. Regardless, heavy tropical downpours are expected to impact parts of the region through the weekend.

Otherwise, tropical development is not anticipated through at least the end of the week, mainly due to a broad area of Saharan dust over much of the Atlantic basin.

There are a few waves moving westward through the basin, but none of those waves show any signs of organizing.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Invest 90-L May Develop Into A Tropical Storm This Weekend Near The Coast Of Georgia & Northeast Florida
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
July 23, 2021

Invest 90-L Located Just Off Of The Georgia & Northeast Florida Coast: An area of low pressure, designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center, is located just east of the Georgia coast. Satellite imagery indicates that most of the thunderstorm activity is occurring to the south of the low pressure center. The reason for this is due to northwesterly wind shear of 20 to 30 knots blowing the thunderstorms away from the center. This wind shear will impede any quick development, but given that Invest 90-L is located over some very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, we will still need to watch for a quick spin up this weekend.

The various model guidance members forecast only weak development due to the forecast of 20 to 30 knots of northwesterly wind shear and some dry air being pushed into the circulation. With that said, even the models that do forecast some development have some very different track forecasts.

Both the GFS and NAM models forecast a track west-southwestward into the eastern Florida Peninsula sometime on Saturday. A quick track like this would definitely limit development.

The Canadian model and the ICON model forecasts that Invest 90-L will drift around just offshore of the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia this weekend before coming ashore between Jacksonville and Savannah on Monday as maybe a tropical storm.

The European model forecasts a slow west-southwest track through Saturday with Invest 90-L coming ashore on the eastern Florida Peninsula on Sunday where it dissipates.

Here Are My Thoughts: Even though the thunderstorm activity looks “impressive” on satellite imagery, this is all shear driven. This means that unless that wind shear decreases, Invest 90-L will have an uphill battle to develop this weekend. With that said, given that Invest 90-L is located very near the Gulf Stream, it may still be able to pull off development into a tropical depression and maybe even a low end tropical storm this weekend. I put the chances of development at about 50 percent.

As for a possible track – right now, Invest 90-L is located in a weak steering environment near the base of an upper level trough of low pressure. That trough of low pressure is expected to lift to the northeast and be replaced by an upper level ridge that will try to nose eastward into the southeastern US.

I think that this will cause Invest 90-L to head west-southwestward and come ashore on either the First Coast or the Space Coast of Florida on either late Sunday or during Monday.

Heavy rainfall is likely to be the main threat from Invest 90-L with enhanced rainfall affecting central and parts of south Florida throughout this weekend. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches look likely this weekend.



The Atlantic looks to be quiet
Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

July 8, 2021

Although the Colorado team may be forecasting an active remainder of hurricane season, it appears that the next 10 days will be on the quiet side. The latest long-range runs of the operational GFS and European models and their ensembles are showing little activity in the Atlantic through mid-July. This is likely partially due to sinking air over the Atlantic expected to occur due to the passage of the suppressed part of an atmospheric disturbance called a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave.


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Last edited by Marty; Yesterday at 12:01 PM.