I am still looking at the possibility of tropical development in the western Caribbean as early as this coming weekend with both the European and European ensemble guidance being consistent on this development. As I mentioned yesterday, the feature that will initiate this tropical cyclone development appears to be a tropical wave which is about to track across the Lesser Antilles. This tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean by about Wednesday morning and the western Caribbean by about Friday and Saturday.

The European model forecasts the development of a tropical cyclone just southwest of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and forecasts this potential storm to track west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula next Monday and Tuesday and then start turning more northeastward just north of the Yucatan Peninsula next Wednesday.

The European ensemble guidance also forecasts the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean on Saturday and forecasts this potential storm to slowly track northwestward across the northwest Caribbean right through next Wednesday when it will be approaching the Yucatan Channel.

Crown Weather on October 10, 2011, 6:59 am