For a while the cloud pattern became a little ragged...but during the past hour or so...high resolution images are showing the development of an eye feature. This means that Iris could be strengthening as we speak. Once the circulation of Iris gets away from Jamaica...it will be moving over the northwestern Caribbean where the upper oceanic heat content is very high. This... in combination with low shear...will provide a favorable environment for development. Historically... a large number of hurricanes have become major hurricanes in this region.
Iris continues to be steered by a strong and persistent mid-level ridge to the north. This pattern is not expected to change...keeping the hurricane on a general westward track through the forecast period.
Iris could reach eastern Yucatan or northern Belize as a major hurricane in about 36 to 48 hours
11am discussion sunday