Tropics Still Quiet Through The Weekend

6/15/2013 8:46:25 PM

Though there is no development expected in the next 48 hours, some features do bear watching the next few days.

A large tropical wave currently between 85 and 75 West and 10 and 20 North is looking to bring some showers to the coastline of Nicaragua and northern Panama and even into parts of Jamaica. Though this was being shown to develop on some models the past few days, most models are showing too much shear from a front over Florida and the northern Gulf along with some dry air interacting with the systems to allow development. This wave should continue to push westward and eventually bring some stronger rainfall to parts of the Yucatan and southern Mexico. Another weak tropical wave is near 50 West south of 10 North. With the ITCZ and the system so far south, development is not expected here with this system.

Otherwise, the rest of the tropics are looking quiet.

Tropical Atlantic: Monitoring Waters Near Mexico

While no tropical development is expected in the Atlantic Basin through this weekend, a system may try to organize in the vicinity of southern Mexico and Central America later next week.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "A sprawling area of dry air, associated with high pressure and strong westerly winds above the surface, will deter tropical development over the Atlantic Ocean through this weekend and into next week."

Westward-moving features, known as tropical waves, will continue to move along in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

In order for any of these to develop, the strong westerly winds aloft, known as wind shear, would have to drop off.

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There has been and continues to be some indication that a tropical wave could organize a bit in the swath from along the west coast of the Caribbean Sea to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later next week, Kottlowski stated.

"The wind shear would have to decrease; otherwise, the feature would remain relatively weak in terms of tropical development," according to Kottlowski.

This region is a favored area for tropical development during June.

Steering winds expected later next week would generally likely take any feature in this area slowly toward the northeastern coast of Mexico.

There is a possibility of torrential showers and locally gusty thunderstorms in this region starting later next week, even if the system were to remain weak or fails to organize.

Communities and travel interests in the region should be prepared for the chance of flooding and mudslides.

It is a bit too early to say whether or not any of that rainfall would reach farther north, into parts of Texas. Steering winds would likely keep this particular system south of Florida and the upper Gulf Coast.

See today's full Tropical Weather Outlook here.