Quick Update On Southwestern Caribbean Tropical Disturbance:

Crown Weather Services
Saturday, June 15, 2013 810 pm EDT/710 pm CDT

I wanted to post a quick update to alert all of you regarding an area of disturbed weather that has developed in the southwestern Caribbean which is associated with a tropical wave tracking westward. This tropical disturbance is expected to track west-northwestward and be located very near the coasts of Belize and Honduras by Monday. From there, this system is forecast to track into the Bay of Campeche by late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning and then inland just south of Tampico, Mexico by around Friday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development. The only thing that is likely to stop development is this disturbance’s proximity to land. The best chance for this system to develop into either a tropical depression or tropical storm is when its in the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday and Thursday before it moves inland just south of Tampico.

It should be pointed out that the convection looks fairly organized and robust on satellite and that the amount of vorticity (defined as amount of spin) associated with this disturbance has increased. I will be monitoring this disturbance closely over the next few days and will keep you all updated.

At the very least, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides across Belize and northern Honduras starting on Sunday and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides are then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

I will have a full discussion on this tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean on Sunday morning.

[Linked Image]