Tropical Disturbance In The Southwestern Caribbean May Develop Into A Tropical Depression Or A Tropical Storm As It Tracks Across The Northwestern Caribbean & The Bay Of Campeche This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
Sunday, June 16, 2013 7:02 am
A tropical disturbance which seems to be developing a broad area of low pressure with it is located over the southwestern Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deep convection firing near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua just north of where this low pressure system is located. It is of my opinion that we may see this low pressure system reform much closer to the deep convection as we head through the day today.
Currently, environmental conditions arenít exactly favorable for development with wind shear values running at 20 to 40 knots over this system. It should be pointed out that wind shear values decrease to less than 20 knots as you near the Yucatan Peninsula and this is where this disturbance is headed over the next couple of days. I expect that we will see this system track to a position near the coast of Belize by late Monday. From there, this tropical disturbance is forecast to track into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
The best shot that this disturbance has to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is when it is tracking across the Bay of Campeche towards the central coast of Mexico where environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable. Additionally, this disturbance may take advantage of the shape and the topography of the coastline along the Bay of Campeche and try and spin up. This is something that has happened many times before with other tropical storms. The most likely timeframe for this to happen will be between Wednesday morning and Friday morning when it is expected to track inland into central Mexico just south of Tampico.
A couple of thoughts here: First is that we should keep an eye on an upper level trough of low pressure that is located near Bermuda and how far north this trough pulls this disturbance. It is expected that this trough of low pressure will pull out to the northeast and be replaced by high pressure by late Monday. Once this happens then this disturbance will be pushed back to the west.
Second thought is that even though none of the forecast guidance develops this disturbance, it should not be written off or discounted. It would not shock me to see this disturbance develop into a tropical storm when itís in the Bay of Campeche between Wednesday and Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable and add in the curvature and topography of the coastline along the Bay of Campeche, a system could spin up rather quickly.
Finally, this disturbance whether it develops or not is of no threat at all to the United States coastline. A strong area of high pressure over the southern United States will prevent this system from tracking northward and push it westward towards central Mexico late this week.
This disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras starting later today and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday morning.
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