Invest 93-L Will Track Across Belize Later Today & Will Emerge In The Bay Of Campeche By Tuesday Night; Development Into A Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Quite Possible While Itís In The Bay Of Campeche Wednesday & Thursday:
Monday, June 17, 2013 520 am EDT/420 am CDT
Invest 93-L, which is a fairly robust tropical disturbance was located just a few miles offshore of the northern coast of Honduras early this morning. Satellite imagery showed quite a bit of thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance and radar loops from Belize indicate that heavy rain is approaching from the east and I do expect heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding and mudslides across northern Honduras and Belize from today through tonight and into Tuesday.
Invest 93-L is forecast to track west-northwestward and move across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula from this afternoon through Tuesday before emerging into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night. This is where development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm seems quite possible as environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable with low wind shear and plenty warm ocean waters. Additionally, the shape of the coast around the Bay of Campeche seems to aid in the development of tropical cyclones.
None of the latest forecast guidance forecasts development into a tropical cyclone. The likely reason for this is that many of the forecast guidance members keeps Invest 93-L inland over southern Mexico and never forecasts it to emerge into the Bay of Campeche. As I mentioned yesterday, once this system makes it to the Bay of Campeche, I think a quick spin up into a tropical storm is quite possible and something that needs to be monitored closely.
A high pressure ridge across the southern United States will prevent Invest 93-L from tracking northward and instead push it west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday & Thursday for a landfall just south of Tampico, Mexico during Friday.
Invest 93-L will bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras from today through tonight and into part of the day Tuesday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.
Finally, the next chance for tropical development still looks to be from the last weekend in June through the first week of July as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation contributes to the formation of thunderstorm activity, lowering barometric pressures and potential development in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. This is something that I will be monitoring very closely over the next week or two and will keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday morning.
See today's full Tropical Weather Outlook here.
Invest 93-L Information:
Tropical Interest in the Western Caribbean
A tropical wave moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula through early this week will be monitored for possible development. The focus will shift to the southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
The tropical wave will be responsible for torrential rainfall from northern Nicaragua to northern Honduras through Monday morning. Tropical downpours can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time. The rainfall can lead to flash flooding and mudslides in the region.
Interaction with land is expected to inhibit development before it reaches the Yucatan Monday afternoon. Though plenty of warm water is available to the system to encourage organization.
Hurricane Center 2013
Hurricane Satellite Maps
2013 AccuWeather.com Hurricane Forecast
Heavy rain will shift into the Yucatan Peninsula Monday unleashing torrential downpours across Belize, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Locally heavy rain will persist across these areas through at least Tuesday.
The tropical wave will settle into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. The wave will usher in a plume of high tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico which will heighten the potential for tropical development.
"There is a slight chance the system can reorganize over the southern Bay of Campeche," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. "However, increasing wind shear, an inhibitor to tropical development, and its proximity to land will limit its chances for development."
Beyond Wednesday, any tropical rains should move west into Mexico.
"No impacts are expected to be felt in the U.S. from this feature," Samuhel said.