USA National Weather Service Forecast

11:00 am EDT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression 2 is located at 16.2 N, -87.6 W with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 40 mph

...Tropical depression forms...
...Approaching coast of Belize...

there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Belize...Guatemala...and eastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 87.6 west. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h. This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center of the depression will move inland over southern Belize this afternoon. The depression could emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Some weakening is expected as the depression moves over land later today and tonight. Some increase in strength is possible on Tuesday if the center emerges into the Bay of Campeche. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

the depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of Belize...Guatemala... northern Honduras and the southern Yucatan Peninsula. These rains could cause flash flooding...especially in mountainous areas.

gusty winds to near tropical storm force are possible along portions of the coast of Belize through tonight.

High-resolution visible satellite images show a low-level circulation has formed in association with the tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system also has organized deep convection associated with the center. Therefore the system has developed into a tropical depression. Surface observations support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The center is nearing the coast of Belize and the cyclone will have very little time for intensification prior to landfall. Some intensification is likely if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday as indicated by the NHC forecast track. The official intensity forecast is close to the decay-SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be 290/11. Dynamical models show an east-West Ridge over the northern Gulf that weakens somewhat in a couple of days. This should lead to some decrease in forward speed during the forecast period. The official forecast is on the northern side of the guidance suite and fairly close to the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

The primary concern with this system is heavy rainfall which could cause significant flooding over portions of Central America and eastern Mexico.

New Depression Approaching Belize

Jun 17, 2013 11:59 AM

A tropical wave that we have been tracking across the Caribbean for the last few days has gained a circulation and is now classified as Tropical Depression 2. The center of the depression will move into Belize this afternoon. While no significant strengthening will occur before the center moves ashore, if it becomes any stronger it would be a tropical storm and be named Barry. The main impact of the depression will be heavy rainfall over Belize as well as portions of Mexico and Guatemala that will lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

Once ashore, the depression will remain weak and could even dissipate, but it more likely will just continue to generate heavy rainfall. By tomorrow afternoon, the center will likely move over the Bay of Campeche. This would give the depression an opportunity to strengthen again. It will have its best chance to become a named system once in this area. From there, this system will move into eastern Mexico and bring locally strong wind and very heavy rainfall that can again cause flooding and mudslides.

Tropical Depression Two Forms Near Belize
Jeff Masters

3:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the extreme Southwest Caribbean, about 60 miles east of the coast of Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, as seen on Belize radar, and has produced up to 6 - 8" inches of rain over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The center of circulation will be over water for about 4 - 6 hours today, before moving ashore over Belize. This may be enough time for the storm to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds. Satellite loops show that the system is well-organized, has plenty of spin, has good upper-level outflow to the north, and has a large of amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in intensity and areal converge. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29C. The Hurricane Hunter mission for Monday has been canceled, as the storm will be ashore by the time they reach it.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2.

Forecast for TD 2
TD 2 will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night and Tuesday, and may emerge into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--on Tuesday night or Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the center of TD 2 ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Thursday. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate through Wednesday. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so I expect this storm will become a tropical storm if its center moves over water in the Bay of Campeche. The center may remain just inland, though, keeping the storm from developing. There is no indication from the models that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping all the storm's rainfall confined to Mexico.