summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information
about 10 mi...15 km NE of Monkey River Town Belize
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1008 mb...29.77 inches
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
satellite...radar...and surface data indicate that the depression is
currently near the coast of southern Belize and should move inland
within the next few hours.
At 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 88.4 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19
km/h. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the
center will move over Belize and northern Guatemala tonight and
early Tuesday...over eastern Mexico later on Tuesday. The
depression could emerge into the southern Bay of Campeche by early
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Weakening will occur while the center moves over land
tonight and Tuesday. Some strengthening is possible by early
Wednesday if the center emerges into the Bay of Campeche.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Hazards affecting land
rainfall...the depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
across portions of Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...
along with the Mexican states of Chiapas...Tabasco...Veracruz...and
the southern Yucatan Peninsula. These rains could cause flash
flooding...especially in mountainous areas.
Wind...gusty winds to near tropical storm force are possible along
portions of the coast of Belize through tonight.
although the center of the depression has been hard to locate this
afternoon...satellite and radar imagery as well as surface
observations suggest that the depression is very near the coast of
southern Belize. The system did not strengthen this afternoon...and
in fact became a little less organized as it approached the coast.
The current intensity is kept at 30 kt although this might be
generous. The cyclone should move over land...some of it
mountainous...for the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore it is
conceivable that the tropical cyclone could dissipate in that time
The initial motion estimate is 290/10. The global models show
an east-West Ridge weakening...but remaining in place...over the
northern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. This should
maintain the west-northwestward heading with a slowing of forward
speed during the next 48-72 hours. The 1800 UTC track guidance is
somethat slower than that from this morning...and so is the
official track forecast. The NHC track prediction is very close to
the latest GFS...however the new ECMWF model run is farther south
and suggests that the system might not be able to emerge into the
Gulf of Mexico.
The primary concern with this system is heavy rainfall...which could
cause significant flooding over portions of Central America and