USA Nat'l Weather Service Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression Two has continued moving west-northwestward at
around 8 kt this evening over best can be determined
from the shortwave infrared imagery and sparse observational data.
A continued track in this direction...though slower...should
continue for the next two to three days primarily due to the
influence of a weak deep-layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. At
about day three...a Bend to the west or even west-southwest is
anticipated...which is common for cyclones reaching the Bay of
Campeche because of the high topography of Mexico. The track
forecast is similar to...but just south of...the previous advisory
and is based primarily upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global
models. Note that while a 96 hr forecast point is provided to show
continuity of the track over Mainland is not likely
that the cyclone will survive quite that long over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico.

The limited surface observations suggest a current intensity of 25
kt. It is of note that before landfall a 1904z AMSU pass indicated
a modest upper-level warm core had developed...with the CIMSS
intensity analysis suggesting that it might have briefly reached
tropical storm intensity. The depression should remain over land
for about the next 36 gradual weakening is likely. As the
forecast track now only briefly has the cyclone reaching the Bay of
Campeche while moderate southwesterly vertical shear is is not anticipated that the system will reach
tropical storm intensity before making a second landfall over
Mexico. An alternative scenario is that the system will dissipate
earlier while over Central America before reaching the Bay of