TD2 Over Guatemala

6/18/2013 10:49:35 AM

Tropical Depression 2 is located at 16.4 N, -88.4 W with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 45 mph

Tuesday morning Tropical Depression Two was centered over northern Guatemala. The depression was moving to the west-northwest at about 8 mph, Satellite pictures indicate the system has weakened somewhat since Monday. The primary concern for the depression today and tonight will be torrential downpours than can cause flooding and lead to mudslides.

Moving over land, the depression will remain weak. It will continue to generate heavy rainfall across Guatemala, Belize ands southeastern Mexico as it continues to track toward the west-northwest into Mexico. The center may move back over water across the Bay of Campeche, or it could continue moving more westward and remain over land. If it would move back over water, there would be an opportunity for it to strengthen later tonight or Wednesday, but if it remains over land it would likely remain weak. In any case, heavy rain will be the main impact from this system over the next couple of days.

This system will remain too far south to have any direct impact on the United States, but it could steer rich tropical moisture into Deep South Texas starting at midweek. This in turn could lead to some beneficial rainfall for this area.

There are no other areas of concern across the Tropical Atlantic. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone is along and south of 10 north latitude over the tropical Atlantic. North of there is a widespread area of Saharan dust extending from the Africa coast to the Lesser Antilles. This Saharan dust will help to limit thunderstorm activity north of about 12 degrees north for at least the next few days. There are a couple of weak tropical waves to track, one near 62 west, south of 12 north and the other near 50 west, south of 12 north. These two waves will bring brisk winds and showers to the Windward and Leeward Islands over the next day or two. The northern end of the wave can even moisten the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. There are no other areas of concern across the tropical Atlantic at this time.

Tropical Depression Floods Belize, Mexico

The tropical disturbance that grew into a tropical depression Monday in the western Caribbean maintained its status Monday night as it moved across the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The system will unleash torrential rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides in the region. Although unlikely, there is a chance the system becomes Tropical Storm Barry before reaching mainland Mexico at midweek.

Tropical downpours from northern Honduras to southeastern Mexico can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time.

Two-day rainfall, as of Monday morning, in Honduras includes 5.64 inches in La Ceiba and 4.26 inches in Trujillo.

Proximity to land is expected to limit the development of this system into Tuesday night before it moves closer to the warm waters of Bay of Campeche.

This enhanced satellite image shows Tropical Depression Two centered over Belize as of early Tuesday, June 18, 2013.

Hurricane Center 2013
Hurricane Satellite Maps
2013 Hurricane Forecast

The system is forecast to briefly move over warm water early Wednesday morning into early Thursday; however, if the system tracks farther south, interactions between the system and the ocean will be limited. If this occurs, the depression will likely weaken.

The second name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin for 2013 is Barry.

Beyond Wednesday, most tropical rains should move inland (westward) over Mexico.

There is a chance that some of the moisture from the system is funneled into part of south and west Texas late in the week well after the second landfall.

Tropical Depression #2 Will Continue To Bring Heavy Rain To Belize, Guatemala & Southern & Central Mexico; Long Range Guidance Starting To Sniff Out Tropical Development In The Western Caribbean During The First Week Of July
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, June 18, 2013 7:35 am

Tropical Depression #2:
Tropical Depression 2 was located over northeastern Guatemala this morning. Satellite imagery showed a very ragged system, but even with that it will continue to bring heavy rainfall to Belize, Guatemala and southern and central Mexico from today through Wednesday and even Thursday.

The depression is expected to track west-northwestward and may emerge in the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday afternoon; however, this is less clear this morning. There are two possibilities this morning: The first is that it never makes it into the Bay of Campeche as high pressure to the north imparts a more westerly track keeping the system over southern Mexico the rest of this week.

The second possibility is that Tropical Depression 2 tracks further into the Bay of Campeche in which fairly quick development and intensification could occur from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning before tracking onshore just south of Tampico, Mexico during Friday. This is a scenario that is supported by the most recent track guidance which has shifted a little to the north. In fact the latest intensity guidance forecasts strengthening to a 40 to 50 mph tropical storm while this system is in the Bay of Campeche.

I am leaning towards scenario number 2 as the latest upper level winds would seem to support a track into the Bay of Campeche during Wednesday and then a west-northwest track across the Bay of Campeche with a landfall as a 45 mph tropical storm about halfway between Tuxpan and Veracruz, Mexico during Friday.

Either way, heavy rainfall is expected to continue from today right through Wednesday and even Thursday across Belize, Guatemala as well as across southern and even central Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are likely across this entire area. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely.

A high pressure ridge across the southern United States will prevent the depression from tracking northward and this system is of no threat to the United States.

Forecast Track Of TD 2:
Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

Model Track Forecast For TD 2:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Courtesy of Weather Underground

Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast For TD 2:
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Satellite Imagery Of TD 2:

Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

As I have mentioned in previous discussions, the next chance for tropical development still looks to be during the first and second week of July as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation contributes to the formation of thunderstorm activity, lowering barometric pressures and potential development in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. It should be pointed out that the latest GFS model guidance seems to be now sniffing this out with a forecast of some sort of tropical system developing in the far western Caribbean around July 3rd. This is something that I will be monitoring very closely over the next week or two and will keep you all updated.

If you have questions regarding this tropical discussion, do not hesitate to contact me.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday morning.

See today's full Tropical Weather Outlook here.