Tropical storm warning flags are flying for the Yucatan Peninsula, with a tropical storm watch for the Belize coast, as Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 could become a named storm before it sloshes ashore late Monday. Models agree the system will likely strengthen more dramatically in the Bay of Campeche before an expected second landfall later this week in northeast Mexico.
The NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the wave known as Invest 90L to PTC 7 at 5:00 pm EDT Sunday. PTC is a new “potential tropical cyclone” designation, which was introduced this year, tracking systems that are not yet tropical storms but that could affect land as tropical storms within 48 hours.
An area of low pressure that is located over the northwestern Caribbean continues to lack a well-defined center of circulation, however, it does have a broad area of circulation. Because of this, it is not yet a Tropical Depression. With that said, however, it is very likely that this system will become a tropical storm sometime on Monday before it reaches the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and thus Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Yucatan Peninsula.
Satellite estimated winds and buoy reports indicate that winds with Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 are near 35 mph. Satellite loops indicate that a majority of the thunderstorm activity is occurring on the northern and eastern sides of this system and this is likely due to westerly wind shear of 20 to 25 knots occurring on the northern and eastern quadrants of it.
So, it is very likely that this system will be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 will then cross the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday and then emerge in the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday night. From there, I think that there is a very high chance that Invest 90-L will become a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday.
I continue to think that Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 will come ashore very near Tampico, Mexico on Thursday afternoon as a 80-100 mph hurricane.
For Everyone On The Yucatan Peninsula & Belize: Tropical storm conditions are likely across the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night and part of Tuesday. Up to 60 mph winds, heavy rain with amounts of 4 to 8 inches and very rough seas are expected. Weather conditions are likely to improve starting late Tuesday.
Updated Daily Tropical Weather page...
NOAA expects a rapid spin up very soon, very quickly. - Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven: "...Disturbance expected to become a tropical storm overnight..."