Invest 90-L Located Over The Southwestern Caribbean Has The Potential To Become Tropical Storm Nate In The Northwestern Caribbean By Friday
Invest 90-L Located Over The Southwestern Caribbean: Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that an area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean. This low pressure system is now designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center. Invest 90-L is producing shower and thunderstorm activity which seems to have increased some today. The environmental conditions across not only the southwestern Caribbean but also across the western and northwestern Caribbean are favorable for development and all signs are pointing towards that Invest 90-L will strengthen into Tropical Storm Nate by the end of this week and potentially Hurricane Nate as it heads for the northern US Gulf Coast this weekend into early next week.
The latest model guidance have trended considerably stronger with their forecasts of Invest 90-L with the latest GFS model forecasting it to become a tropical storm in the northwestern Caribbean on Friday and a hurricane as it moves from south to north across the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday with a landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Sunday morning as a hurricane.
The European model guidance has also trended stronger and now forecasts Invest 90-L to enter the northwestern Caribbean as a tropical storm on Friday and become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Ultimately, the European model forecasts this system to make landfall as a hurricane near Panama City, Florida on Sunday evening.
There is a pretty large spread in the European ensemble guidance members anywhere from a landfall in southeastern Louisiana to landfalls along the west coast of Florida. It should be noted that there is a cluster of ensemble members that show a landfall on the Florida Panhandle on Sunday night/Monday.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the disturbance (Invest 90-L) is well on its way to becoming our next named storm. I think that there is at least a 80 percent chance that Invest 90-L will be Tropical Storm Nate by the time it reaches the northwestern Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel on Friday.
The environmental conditions this weekend look favorable for strengthening and this is very worrisome because we could have an intensifying tropical storm or hurricane headed for the northern US Gulf Coast between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday into Monday.
This means that it is time for everyone from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to really pay attention to the forecast of this system. There is the very real potential for a hurricane landfall by late Sunday or Monday anywhere between New Orleans and Tallahassee.
For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.