Navy track and winds...
Nate is expected to move northwesterly into the northwestern Caribbean tonight into Friday and is likely to strengthen due to somewhat favorable environmental conditions and extremely warm ocean water temperatures. By Friday afternoon and Friday night, Nate is forecast to impact the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel as possibly a hurricane. Everyone across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel should prepare for hurricane conditions which are expected on Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Once Nate finishes its traverse of northeastern Honduras on Thursday evening and emerges into the Western Caribbean, the storm will be in a very favorable environment for intensification. The 12Z Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be low to moderate, 5 – 15 knots, through Saturday. SSTs will be a very warm 30°C (86°F), and Nate will have an unusually moist atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 80 – 85%. Nate will be passing over an area of very high ocean heat content (OHC) in the Western Caribbean, with very warm waters that extend to great depth. Since Nate is unlikely to emerge from Honduras as a well-organized system, it will probably take the storm about 12 hours to get organized and take full advantage of these favorable conditions.
The Thursday morning runs of our top five intensity models showed modest intensification of Nate on Thursday evening through Friday evening, with none of the models predicting that Nate would be a hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Cozumel and the northeastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night. However, the 12Z Thursday SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index gave Nate a 40% chance of being a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds by 8 am Friday, 12 hours before it will make its closest pass to the Cozumel/Cancun area. The way this hurricane season has gone, it is safer to predict intensification at the upper end of what our intensity models are predicting, and residents and visitors in Cozumel/Cancun should expect that Nate will be a Category 1 hurricane Friday evening when it makes its closest pass.NEMO ADVISORY 2: TROPICAL STORM NATE
NEMO in collaboration with the National Meteorological Service hereby informs the general public that Tropical Storm Nate, with winds of 40 miles per hour is located near 14.3 North Latitude and 83.7 West Longitude or approximately 550 miles south east of Belize. Nate is moving to the northwest at 8 miles per hour. The current track shows the centre of the storm in the warm waters off the coast of Belize. The stronger winds are expected to be east of Belize, over the sea. Nate is forecasted to reach the Yucatan Peninsula and head into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday night or Saturday. The main threat to Belize is thunderstorms and heavy rainfall which will continue to cause localized flooding to streets, low-lying roads, bridges, and flood prone villages, towns, and cities. Nate is expected to be directly in front of Belize by tomorrow and it is likely that a Tropical Storm Watch will be issued for the country.
The public is hereby advised to make preparations to protect life and property. Move to higher grounds if you live in an area that will flood. Know which shelter you will go to and know how you will reach the shelter. Make checks on family members and neighbors who are in need of assistance. Secure as much food and water as possible. At risk families, the elderly, women and children are encouraged to weather the effects of the storm in a safe, dry place. Do not wait until it’s too late to take action.
It is not advised to go to sea tomorrow. Fishers and people on the Cayes are hereby strongly urged to monitor and track Tropical Storm Nate and to take the necessary actions to preserve your life and property. Farmers are encouraged to attend to their crops and animals to reduce losses.
Drivers are reminded to drive with extreme caution when driving in wet conditions, reduce your speed, and put on your low beam, and hazard lights.
The Ministry of Works hereby informs that the Coastal Road is closed due to flooding.
The 11 am Thursday NHC forecast for the probability of tropical-storm-force winds for the five days ending on Tuesday, October 10, 2017. New Orleans was given about a 50% chance of tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with those winds most likely to arrive on Saturday night. Cancun and Cozumel were also given about a 50% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds, with the onset occurring late Friday afternoon. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC.For more information on Tropical Storm Nate, click here for our Daily Tropical Report