Development Of A Tropical Storm Over The Western Caribbean Remains Possible Between Wednesday & Friday With A Track Towards The Cayman Islands & Western Cuba Around Friday & Southeastern Florida & The Bahamas This Weekend
The western Caribbean will be the spot to watch throughout this week for signs of tropical development. Satellite imagery indicates there are shower and thunderstorm activity occurring from the southwestern Caribbean to the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. I think that the convection that is now happening over the southwestern Caribbean will be the area that eventually develops into a tropical system later this week.
Analysis indicates that there are some falling barometric pressures over the southwestern Caribbean and that the wind shear values over the this area are favorable (5-15 knots) for development. Given this, I think that we will see a low pressure system form over the southwestern Caribbean by about Wednesday or so with this low pressure system potentially strengthening into a tropical storm as it moves northward into the northwestern Caribbean and towards Cuba, southeastern Florida and the Bahamas by Friday and Saturday.
Here Are My Thoughts:
I am putting the chance of the development of a tropical storm in the western Caribbean near the Cayman Islands at 45 percent. The most likely timeframe for this development to occur is between Wednesday and Friday.
It looks very likely that whatever forms in the western Caribbean (tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane) will be pulled north and northeastward into a trough of low pressure over the East Coast this weekend.
This means that there is the potential for at least tropical storm impacts for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba Thursday through Friday and the possibility for some impacts from this system across southeastern Florida and the central and northern Bahamas on Saturday. Beyond this, the combination of this tropical system being entrained into the eastern US trough could bring extremely heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic States northward into the northeastern United States from Sunday through Monday.
I continue to keep a very close eye on this potential western Caribbean tropical development and will have additional updates for you throughout this week.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook,