Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure is centered about 80 miles north of the coast of Honduras,
however, the system is somewhat elongated and does not yet have a
closed circulation. Heavier showers and thunderstorms have been
developing near and to the east of the low's center during the past
several hours, and extensive cloudiness and showers extend elsewhere
across the western Caribbean Sea eastward over the Greater Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the system
moves slowly north-northwestward at about 5 mph. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of
this system during the next several days. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains to portions of Central America, the Yucatan
peninsula, and western Cuba into next week.
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms, currently over the Caribbean Sea, will drift into the Gulf of Mexico and may organize into a tropical depression or storm later this weekend and into next week.
Slow-moving and repeating downpours will continue the threat of flash flooding and mudslides into this weekend from Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico to Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
During this weekend, as the mass of downpours begins to drift, an uptick in downpours is likely to spread over the Yucatan, Cuba and perhaps the Bahamas.
"This disturbance will move to near the Yucatan Channel between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba by late Sunday, then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico or over the northern Yucatan on Monday," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Along its journey from the northwestern Caribbean to the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico, the disturbance may strengthen into a tropical depression or storm.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is Michael.
Fishing, shipping and petroleum interests in the Gulf of Mexico and coastal areas throughout the Gulf should monitor the progress of this tropical disturbance.
MONITORING INVEST 91 L - PREPARING FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING
As we enter the weekend, we advise Belizeans, particularly those living in flood prone areas, to stay alert and informed as our National Met Service and National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) continue to monitor a broad area of disturbance in the Caribbean Sea which the Hurricane Center has named Invest 91L, and which has a high chance of tropical development late this weekend or early next week in the Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this will bring torrential rainfall to portions of Central America (including Belize) and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days, which can cause flooding. So far NEMO has NOT issued an ADVISORY, but will do so if and when it becomes necessary.
For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.