Invest 91-L Located Over The Northwestern Caribbean Continues To Become More Organized & Is Likely To Become A Tropical Depression Or A Tropical Storm By Sunday Or Monday

Invest 91-L Located Over The Northwestern Caribbean: Invest 91-L, which is an area of disturbed weather located over the northwestern Caribbean, continues to become more organized this morning. Satellite imagery, weather observations and radar loops indicate that even though this system does not yet have a well-defined circulation it is not too far from doing this. What is a little concerning to me is that Invest 91-L is organizing in the face of strong wind shear. Wind shear values are expected to decrease to 15 to 20 knots by Monday and remain at these levels through Wednesday. This is concerning because these more favorable conditions will likely lead to more robust development and intensification as Invest 91-L moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest model guidance point to that the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast is most at risk from Invest 91-L with a likely landfall window between midday Wednesday and midday Friday somewhere between Cedar Key, Florida and New Orleans, Louisiana. As for forecast landfall intensity the GFS, UKMET and HWRF models all forecast this system will be a strengthening hurricane at landfall. The European, SHIPS and LGEM models, on the other hand forecast a moderately strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. A reason why for the intensification right near landfall posed by all of the models is because they all forecast a turn to the northeast causing the storm to move with the upper level wind flow leading to nearly zero wind shear over it. This will be something that will need to be watched very closely.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think we are about 24 to 36 hours away from Invest 91-L becoming a tropical depression and maybe about 48 hours away from it becoming Tropical Storm Michael when it's near the Yucatan Channel and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear values by that time will be favorable for development and strengthening.

Invest 91-L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Crown Weather Services

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