Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization in association with a large non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, a subtropical or tropical depression could still develop later today or on Tuesday. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday and Wednesday while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. See NOAA High Seas Forecast products for more details on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A non-tropical area of low pressure several hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda continues to be monitored for development as it slowly moves southward. This disturbance is located along the western end of a front that stretches across the central and northeastern Atlantic. It is highly likely that this system will acquire enough tropical characteristics in the next 24-48 hours such as to be declared a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The next name that would be given to a tropical or subtropical storm is Epsilon.
Another area of concern is across the southwestern Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the upcoming week. Waters are very warm across the region, and the atmosphere will be sufficiently moist. Wind shear may be a limiting factor, however, and the ultimate development prospects are heavily skewed toward the magnitude and duration of the wind shear. As such, a moderate risk for development is assigned to the area for later this week or early this weekend.
Should the shear be strong, then development into an organized tropical system would be unlikely with a disorganized area of low pressure then expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, if the shear is weak, then there is some potential for a significant system to develop and pose a threat to the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas. All interests across these regions should monitor the situation closely this week.For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here