Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies this morning. Cloudy and windy in San Pedro. Mainly fair and warm weather will prevail today.
Mostly sunny today and partly cloudy to cloudy at times today. Mainly fair and warm weather will prevail, and showers will be isolated.
Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts Sea State:
Waves: 4-6 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
For Saturday and Saturday night is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from June 29 to July 7:
The chances of sargassum affecting local beaches will remain high during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
At 3:00 am, Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 12.7N, longitude 58.6W, or about 70 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Elsa was moving to the west-northwest at 28mph with maximum sustained winds of 60mph. At this time, this system does not pose a threat to Belize due to its distance from the country.
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Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill
The Caribbean Sea
upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is moving west toward the Windward
Fresh winds prevail over much of the Caribbean, with the exception
of gentle winds near Cuba and locally strong winds S of Puerto
Rico in association with a tropical wave. Seas are in the 6-9 ft
range in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean.
For the forecast, the tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean
will move quickly into the central basin later this week. Locally
heavy rainfall and reduced visibility will occur in its vicinity.
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Elsa is near 9.4N 48.8W 1006 mb at
5 AM EDT moving W at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Elsa will move to 10.3N 52.0W this afternoon,
11.7N 56.7W Fri morning, 13.2N 61.8W Fri afternoon, 14.9N 66.9W
Sat morning, 16.7N 71.2W Sat afternoon, and 18.0N 74.5W Sun
morning. Elsa will remain a tropical storm through the weekend,
and may move near Cuba or the far southeast Gulf early Mon.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Elsa Is Very Likely A Hurricane Right Now
At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Barbados. It's moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.
Elsa is certainly strengthening today and I think that it is probably already a hurricane based on satellite imagery, radar imagery from Barbados and weather observations from Barbados.
Radar imagery from Barbados indicates that an eye seems to be forming with a partially closed eyewall observed. In addition, the airport in Barbados has recorded wind gusts of hurricane force (86 mph wind gust). Elsa is likely a low end hurricane with 75 to 80 mph winds or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Some additional strengthening is forecast to take place during the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength.
Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.